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fxus61 krlx 241338 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
938 am EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

low pressure meanders slowly through the Carolinas through
Tuesday, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic
Seaboard through Wednesday night. Next front Thursday night.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 930 am Monday...

Sent a quick update to expire Flash Flood Watch and warnings
across the extreme southeast counties. The rest of forecast
remains on track.

As of 655 am Monday...

Forecast on track.

As of 420 am Monday...

A stacked low pressure system south of the area will continue to
chug across the Carolinas toward the coast this period. The left
branch of the warm conveyor belt was only producing spotty light
rain out of a mid cloud deck across the middle Ohio Valley. The
right branch was bringing about a steadier rain in the central
Appalachians, but rainfall rates were a quarter of an inch an
hour or less.

Guidance continues these trends today and tonight, as the system
slowly pushes east. Therefore expect flooding to gradually abate
this morning in the Flash Flood Watch area, and was not
expecting new problems farther north in the central
Appalachians, where rainfall amounts Sunday were far less than
in the watch area.

Nonetheless, have introduced or increased chance pops farther
northwest into the middle Ohio Valley on the areas of light rain
in the left branch of the warm conveyor belt today. Meanwhile,
rain continues in the central Appalachians today under the right
branch of the warm conveyor belt. The rain will be mainly on
the ridges and southeast slopes given low level southeast flow.
Saw no compelling reason for much increase in intensity there
given the system is at its closest approach and near peak
intensity. Some intensification is progged later today, but its
effects will occur farther east by then.

As the system shifts east tonight, the chance for rain will
come to an end over the middle Ohio overnight, while rainfall
diminishes over the central Appalachians with that area under
the left branch of the warm conveyor belt, the right branch
having shifted east.

Lack of cape surface based or elevated takes convection and its
complicating effects out of the picture.

Low clouds should remained banked up along the southeast slopes
of the central Appalachians through tonight. Fog farther west
overnight tonight will depend upon the boundary level winds,
which look to be marginal, although pockets of dense fog seem
likely under lighter flow in an inverted trough just west of the
mountains in WV.

A blend of near term guidance and previous forecast appeared to
have a good handle on temperatures and dew points lowest along
the southeastern slopes of the mountains.


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 315 am Monday...

Overall drier weather expected in the short term period. Low
pressure will continue to move east and north along the Atlantic
coast, with light rain shower activity continuing along far eastern
zones. No additional flooding concerns are expected. A brief warming
and drying trend is expected on Wednesday, as high pressure and
upper ridging builds into the region, along with increasing
southerly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front.


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 315 am Monday...

Cold front will spread showers and thunderstorms back into the
region by Thursday. At this point, no widespread severe is expected
due to timing, and overall lack of significant dynamics. There will
however be the possibility of brief heavy downpours, as precipitable water values
rise to over 1.1 inches once again. Focus then shifts to a
strengthening low pressure system across the Gulf region, that will
lift a warm frontal boundary across the area this weekend, with
showers and thunderstorms returning. Heavy downpours will be
possible again, as strong southerly flow aids in high moisture
transport to the region. Cold frontal boundary with the system is
progged to arrive on Monday.


Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/...
as of 655 am Monday...

The area will be on the northwest fringes of a low pressure
system moving slowly through the Carolinas this period. All
sites have thus far held VFR conditions, but with stratus either
side of 10 kft just east of bkw.

MVFR stratocu may show up over The Lowlands this morning, but
any rain there should not cause significant visibility
restrictions. The mountains are most likely to see MVFR ceilings
and visibilities at times in rain today. IFR stratus will be
close by to the east of bkw this morning, but should retreat to
the east this afternoon.

There should be enough clouds and wind to preclude widespread
fog tonight, but the stratus may move back west over bkw

Surface flow will be light east to northeast, except east to
southeast in the mountains, and around 10 kts and gusty at bkw
today. Flow aloft will be light to moderate southeast.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...

Forecast confidence: low to medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of rain and category changes may
vary today. Bkw will be near the edge of MVFR to IFR ceilings
much of the time. Fog is possible tonight.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency M M h M M M h h h h h l
bkw consistency M M M h M h h h h h h l
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l

After 12z Tuesday...
IFR may linger across the southeast slopes of the mountains
into Tuesday morning.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...



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