Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 151829
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
129 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
weak upslope tonight. High pressure Saturday. A weak system
brings some light rain Sunday afternoon and night. Another
clipper crosses Tuesday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
as of 110 PM Friday...
Some cold air advection behind an upper level wave will allow
for some weak upslope this evening in the northern WV mountains.
Moisture may become deep enough for some light snow showers. Due
to the limited moisture and weak nature of the upslope, think
any accumulations would remain less than in inch.
Temperatures tonight are once again rather tricky due to the
combination of some wind, a stratus deck that will be
dissipating, and some warm advection clouds.
Warm air advection sets in later tonight with high pressure
building over the area on Saturday.
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...
as of 210 am Friday...
Overall, warmer and drier over the weekend. Any lingering snow
showers will taper off by early Saturday morning across the
northern mountains, as drier air takes hold. High pressure, with
a warm southerly flow, and building upper heights, will allow
temperatures Saturday and Sunday to top out in the mid to upper
40s. A weak disturbance crossing on Sunday, will allow for light
rain showers, but overall, minimal impacts.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 215 am Friday...
Warmer temperatures, along with unsettled weather for the long
term period. Another system will affect the area in the Monday
night through Tuesday night time frame. Enough warm air will be
in place that all precipitation should start out as rain, but
transition to a light rain/snow mix across the northern
mountains late Tuesday night. Gusty winds expected with this
system, particularly Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
with dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with another system
at the end of the week.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 1230 PM Friday...
A weak wave is moving over the region. This wave is creating
a large hole in the VFR/MVFR stratus deck. The stratus deck
will gradually raise some this afternoon with the hole
propagating with the upper level wave. Some cold air advection
behind the wave will allow for some weak upslope this evening in
the northern WV mountains. This will allow the stratus deck to
solidify on the western slopes of the mountains and lower some
this evening. Later tonight, the stratus deck will gradually
dissipate as warm air advection sets in. After the stratus deck
dissipates, VFR conditions can be expected for Saturday morning.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: snow showers could cause restrictions in
northeastern WV this evening.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h M h M
bkw consistency h M M M M h h h h h M l
ekn consistency l l l M M h h M l h h l
pkb consistency h h h h h M h h M h h l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h M l h M M
After 18z Saturday...
IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday