Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 krlx 271031 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
631 am EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Synopsis...
active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream
systems. The first system departs early this morning with
another crossing tonight into Tuesday, and then another
Friday.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 630 am Monday...

Still a few lingering showers across NE County Warning Area. Showers and
thunderstorms already moving into the lower Ohio River valley
with the next system.

As of 130 am Monday...

Showers coming to an end early this morning as one low pressure
system begins to pull away. Have some low pops across the
northern mountains this morning to account for a possible
lingering shower, however for most of the forecast area it should
be dry into this afternoon. Then attention turns to a surface
low working its way into the lower Ohio River valley this
afternoon/evening. Upper level support will be weakening as the
system moves into the area tonight. Still looks good for some
thunder. Models do show some decent cape -- 500-800 j/kg in the
Ohio River valley. The NAM is not real impressive on shear --
however the rap shows an area of 40-50kts bulk shear along and
west of the Ohio River. Better chance of strong to severe storms
should remain west of forecast area, but there is a low end
chance of a strong storm making it into the tri-state later
today. Generally looking at basin average rainfall amounts
around 0.25-0.5" late today and tonight. Higher amounts should
be near and west of the Ohio River, closer to the low.

&&

Short term /Tuesday through Thursday night/...
as of 340 am Monday...

Shortwave and associated weak low pressure system cross region
Tuesday for more rain showers and thunderstorms. All parameters
show little significant weather with this system. A ridge of
high pressure builds in this systems' wake and keeps US dry into
Thursday.

&&

Long term /Friday through Sunday/...
as of 350 am Monday...

Another upper level wave approaches the area for Friday. This
system is slightly more organized than the other systems this
week, but not my much. So more of the same expected with
thunderstorms though as a result of the active pattern water
issues may become more of an issue as soils saturate though The
Breaks between systems obviously help. High pressure builds
Saturday and Sunday for another dry break with cooler
temperatures, but still above freezing - even for the mountains.

&&

Aviation /10z Monday through Friday/...
as of 630 am Monday...

Some scattered fog out there this morning, however with a puff
of breeze not expecting much impact at taf sites. IFR ceilings
pretty close to pkb. Low chance these could make it to the
Airport, but did not include IFR in taf. Any lingering MVFR
will clear out in next few hours with VFR for most of today.
Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from the west
late today, remaining around into tonight. May have MVFR to IFR
with these.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...

Forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: IFR ceilings may make it into pkb early
this morning, but if so not last very long. Timing and category
of showers and storms late today will be variable.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
ekn consistency M M M M l h h h h h M M
pkb consistency l h h h h h h M h h M M
ckb consistency M h h l l h h h h h M M

After 12z Tuesday...
brief IFR possible in thunderstorms into Tuesday. IFR possible
in thunderstorms Friday.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations