Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 290733
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 am EDT Mon may 29 2017
high pressure passes south of the area today. Cold fronts cross
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure Thursday. A low brings a
front into the area Friday. Unsettled again next weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 330 am Monday...
The last of the showers crossing northern WV early this
morning, will exit the mountains around dawn, or shortly
thereafter, as the causative cold front moves through. Today
will bring dry weather in the wake of the front, with high
pressure passing to the south of the area this afternoon.
The Drop in dew points lags behind the front, which was
crossing the Ohio River early this morning. Values are not
forecast to settle into the 50s until this afternoon, when the
mixing layer climbs to at least h8.
Dew points climb again tonight, in southwest flow ahead of
another cold front approaching from the west. There should be
just enough flow, along with some clouds, to prevent much fog
from forming, except perhaps in the hollows of the southern WV
Coal fields. Timing of the front gives rise to the chance for
showers over the middle Ohio Valley by dawn Tuesday, mainly
north of heights.
Temperatures close to previous package and latest guidance
blends, with values at least leveling off ahead of the cold
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 330 am Monday...
Unsettled weather remains Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper low to linger
across Great Lakes region in the short term period, with a series of
cold fronts, one on Tuesday, followed by another on Wednesday.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible during this
period as fronts traverse the region. Overall threat for severe
weather with these fronts remains low.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Monday...
After a brief break in the precipitation on Thursday, another front
will move south into the region Friday into Saturday, before
stalling out briefly and lifting back north late in the weekend as
another low moves into the Ohio Valley region. High moisture content
air will surge back into the area, with dew points rising into the
mid to upper 60s. This looks to be a period of heavy showers and
thunderstorms, and will need to be monitored for potential water
Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
as of 2 am Monday...
A cold front will move through overnight with showers and
potentially a rumble of thunder. Not expecting real heavy rain
with this, so kept visibilities in VFR -- but should a heavier
shower head toward a taf site, it may need amended. Ceilings
will gradually lower to MVFR and possibly some IFR in the
mountains as the front passes. Expect MVFR to gradually break up
and lift from west to east Monday morning, with high cu bases
in the afternoon, aoa 6kft.
Another cold front approaching from the west may bring
enough clouds and wind to preclude fog formation Monday night,
save for the valleys of the southern WV Coal fields again.
Surface flow will be light west to southwest while light to
moderate west to northwest flow aloft overnight into Monday
morning becomes light west to southwest for Monday afternoon
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: occurrence and timing of MVFR or worse
conditions may vary overnight, and may need to add visibility
restrictions for heavier showers. Timing of improvement from
MVFR ceilings in morning cu Monday may vary, but confidence is
high in high cu bases Monday afternoon, as the mixing layer
deepens. Fog cannot entirely be ruled out toward dawn Monday or
toward 06z Tuesday.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Monday 05/29/17
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency M M h M M M M M h h h M
heights consistency M M M M h h M M h h h M
bkw consistency M M M M h M M M M M h M
ekn consistency M h M h l M l M M M h M
pkb consistency M M M h h M M M h h h M
ckb consistency M M h M h h M M M M h M
After 06z Tuesday...
IFR possible in isolated showers and storms Tuesday and
Wednesday, and in fog Thursday morning.