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fxus61 krlx 200554 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1254 am EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Synopsis...
unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system
late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts
this way for Friday.

&&

Near term /through today/...
as of 930 PM Sunday...
clearing has worked southeastward into central WV as weak low
level troughing brings in some drier air from OH, while clear
skies continue over the southern sections of WV and SW Virginia.
Clouds expected to get hung up, or redevelop along and east of
the i79 corridor later tonight. So have adjusted clouds
overnight to basically keep them or redevelop east of the i79
corridor. In any event, looks like patchy dense fog, especially
in river valleys, will develop between midnight and 3 am, with
clear areas developing faster.



As of 705 PM Sunday...
tricky forecast overnight as to what happens to clouds, and in
turn, what happens with fog, as weak high pressure and near calm
winds develop. Looks like clouds will erode somewhat from the
northwest and south, but leaving an east to west band across the
central sections where low level inversion is strongest.
However, with wet ground and near calm winds, will go with
patchy dense fog most areas overnight, just later where clouds
hold on. Any clouds and fog will dissipate during Monday morning
as mixing of very dry air aloft occurs, leaving at least a
mostly sunny afternoon.

&&

Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
as of 245 PM Sunday...

Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system
looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. Improving
conditions on Wednesday. No cold air behind this system, so
expect the very warm air to hold.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 250 PM Sunday...

The very warm pattern to end the work week. Showers and perhaps
a few storms may fire along a developing warm front Thursday. Temps
may soar well into the 70s on Friday in the warm sector, ahead
of a potent cold front set to cross Friday night. I have
continued the idea of thunder with the front. A significant
cool down is expected over the weekend with high pressure
building overhead, though still running above normal in the
temperature department.

&&

Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
as of 1250 am Monday...

Foggy with plenty of IFR overnight. VFR and mostly clear by
16z. MVFR stratus in the northeast may inhibit fog formation
there.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Tuesday...

Forecast confidence: low.

Alternate scenarios: eastern extent of LIFR is questionable.



Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Monday 02/20/17
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1hrly 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
crw consistency l h l M M M M l l h h M
heights consistency l M l M M M M l M M l l
bkw consistency l l l l l M M l l M h M
ekn consistency M l M l l l l l l M h M
pkb consistency M M l M M M M l M h M l
ckb consistency h h h M M M M l l M h M

After 06z Tuesday...
widespread IFR not expected.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rpy/jmv/jw/30

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