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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

high pressure holds through Wednesday. Strong cold front crosses
Thursday, and another possibly on Sunday.


Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 215 PM Tuesday...

High pressure over northern Ontario dominates the sensible weather
with a dry Canadian airmass that is providing broad diurnal
temperature trends. After a cold start this morning, temperatures
have climbed to near 60f as of this issuance in The Lowlands, and
expect another sharp drop tonight back into the 30s, with upper
20s possible in some of the deeper mountain valleys.

A warm front is bringing mid/upper level moisture to the tug Fork
valley area, which will slowly drift to the northeast through the
evening and tonight. Despite the less than perfect conditions for
frost, have issued an area wife frost advisory tonight and a
freeze warning for the northeast mountains. Valleys will be
affected more than the hill tops.

Meanwhile, a frontal system approaches from the mid Mississippi
Valley turning the flow back to a southerly component later in the
day Wednesday. The cold front and open wave aloft will be covered
in the short term portion of the forecast. For the near term, no
rain is expected.


Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...
as of 300 PM Tuesday...

It will remain very mild Wednesday night with increasing
southeast flow. A fast moving cold front will sweep through
Thursday with showers and perhaps low topped convection. Some
locales may spike above 70 before the cold front crosses in the
afternoon. It will be breezy ahead of and behind the front to
carry into Thursday night. There may be some light Post frontal
snow showers in the highest evelations of the northern mountains

Surface high pressure will briefly build into the area
Friday and most of Friday night. This will allow for slightly
below normal highs on Friday. Lows Friday night will feature more
of Ridge/Valley split with warm air advection allowing for a mild night on the
ridges compared to the valleys and hollows.


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 325 PM Tuesday...

Upper level ridging will build into the region Saturday with
another spike in temperatures on warm southwesterly flow.
Adjusted the forecast blender output for higher daytime temps,
with upper 70s plausible across southern lowland zones. Another
fast moving cold front will move across Sunday with the best
chances for showers across the north. Behind this front there
looks to be a brief spell of cold air advection Sunday night before the upper
ridge builds back in for early next week with much above normal
temps returning, at least for highs.


Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 140 PM Tuesday...

Going with IFR fog or worse tonight only at ekn tonight, although
have slight confidence issues here given the LIFR fog late at crw
and pkb last night. Also, ekn will get a mid deck of variable
clouds that may cause observations to bounce at that site.

Otherwise, VFR through the period with winds less than 10kts.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Wednesday...

Forecast confidence: high through today. Medium tonight.

Alternate scenarios: may need to remove fog tonight.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency h M M M h h h h h h M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
ekn consistency h M M M h h h h h h M M
pkb consistency h M M M h h h h h h M M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M

After 18z Wednesday...
brief IFR possible in showers Thursday.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...frost advisory from 1 am to 10 am EDT Wednesday for wvz005>011-
Freeze warning from 1 am to 10 am EDT Wednesday for wvz046-047.
Ohio...frost advisory from 1 am to 10 am EDT Wednesday for ohz066-067-
Kentucky...frost advisory from 1 am to 10 am EDT Wednesday for kyz101>103-
Virginia...frost advisory from 1 am to 10 am EDT Wednesday for vaz003-004.


near term...26
short term...30
long term...30

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