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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV
807 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

cold front crosses Thursday with showers. High pressure Friday
into Saturday. A weak cold front Saturday night or Sunday.


Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 800 PM Wednesday...
forecast on track only minor tweaks to pop timing.

As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Radar has been picking some echoes aloft with the warm front and
10kft ceilings. These have since moved out of the areas, with a
decrease in cloud cover over the I-64 corridor.

Warm advection is occurring aloft, and expect that to continue
into the overnight. This will keep overnight lows from dropping
very far at all, and have these lows generally a couple of degrees
above the guidance numbers.

Overall, kept the consistency in the timing of the line of showers
late tonight entering Perry/Morgan counties in Ohio. Southern end
of the front is acting frontolytically, so the pops in this area
tonight into Thursday are largely capped at chance. Even where the
pops are higher across the northern tier of counties, the quantitative precipitation forecast for
this front and the accompanying upper level open wave are low.
Most places will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain through


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
as of 305 PM Wednesday...

Models showing strong cold air advection Thursday night behind the
cold front. With some low level moisture remaining near the
mountains in the northwest flow, can not rule out some light rain or
drizzle. A warm front will then push northward across the area on
Friday. With the low level moisture having dried out by then, no
precipitation is expected with the front. High pressure then builds
in Friday night and remains into Saturday.


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 305 PM Wednesday...

Lots of uncertainty with the timing of a cold front moving through
sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night, with a possible
wave along the front. Therefore, will keep pops fairly generic
without specific timing. Uncertainty in the pattern continues into
the next week with a wide spread of solutions between models.


Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 800 PM Wednesday...

VFR. Winds veer to the southwest in the 10 to 15 kt range as rain
moves into the northern terminals early Thursday. Some MVFR
visibilities possible in -shra when rain overspreads pkb, ekn and
ckb. Rain chances are possible at some point everywhere. Almost
added some low level wind shear to tafs, but only the hrrr model is showing
significant low level winds developing overnight. So I went with
the consensus guidance instead.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Friday...

Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: timing of rain may vary. Low level wind shear may be an issue
if the hrrr model is correct. If so, it would be ws010/21035kt.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thursday 10/27/16
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M

After 00z Friday...
brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers Thursday evening.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...jw
short term...rpy
long term...rpy/30

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