Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 231354
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
954 am EDT Sat Sep 23 2017
high pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week. Cooler airmass to follow.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 955 am Saturday...
As of 240 am Saturday...
With a stagnant pattern of ridging surface and aloft, expect little
change to the forecast today from yesterday. Any changes will
be minor. These changes will be, after dense morning River
Valley fog, less cirrus from the remnants of the once tropical
system off the southern New England coast, and so more sunshine.
This will lead to another dry day but with high temperatures a
couple of degrees higher than yesterday. Look for highs today
near 90 degrees. Tonight will be similar to last night with
clear skies and calm winds which will lead to River Valley fog.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
as of 225 am Saturday...
Very few changes to the forecast for the short term as upper
level ridging remains in control over the Ohio Valley through
early next week. Temperatures remain well above normal and dry
conditions will persist.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
as of 225 am Saturday...
Operational long range models remain consistent in a significant
pattern change upcoming for the end of the week. Strong cold
front to pass late Wednesday/Wednesday night, providing the next
chances for showers, and a cooler airmass to follow with 850mb
temperatures 10-15c cooler.
Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
12z Saturday thru 12z Sunday...
as of 615 am Saturday...
High pressure spells VFR mostly clear this period outside of
nighttime river and valley fog. Widespread vlifr fog affects
major taf sites, except bkw with MVFR, til 13-14z this morning.
River Valley fog Saturday night to develop a little later and
be a bit less dense at most taf sites with a briefer period of
LIFR, except VFR at bkw and vlifr at ekn.
Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: medium to high.
Alternate scenarios: fog timing may vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency M l l h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency M M l l h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency M l l h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency l l l h h h h h h h h M
pkb consistency M M l h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency l l l h h h h h h h h M
After 12z Sunday...
vlifr in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.