Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 250250
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1050 PM EDT Wed may 24 2017
upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of
showers and storms, tapering off on Friday. Additional disturbances
provide precipitation chances over the weekend.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 905 PM Wednesday...
Not much change except for trying to time pops in the 0-6 hr
As of 215 PM Wednesday...
Upper low continues to dig into the mid Mississippi Valley with
energy rotating into the County Warning Area in the cyclonic flow. The weak
instability has been overcome enough to get embedded convection
within a stratiform rain shield, making the severe threat
rather tricky given the directional shear profiles. Expecting
more convection to fire in the dry slot in the wake of this
shield where clearing has taken place. Wind and hail threat
exists as well.
Take the pops down considerably tonight in this drier air after
frontal passage from south to north with the absence of the
heating. As the low continues to rotate into the northeast,
additional embedded waves will be the source of forcing in the
cold pool aloft heading into Thursday. There will also be a low
level jet streak across the southern County Warning Area which will help with
some of the organization of the convection, but just in the
general thunderstorm area from the Storm Prediction Center guidance.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
as of 350 PM Wednesday...
Upper level low will move off to the northeast Thursday night and
Friday, with showers pulling out of the area. Models are fairly
consistent with a disturbance then moving through Friday night into
Saturday, providing additional showers, with thunderstorms possible
by Saturday afternoon.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 350 PM Wednesday...
Models show a disturbance moving across the area Saturday night or
Sunday. Depending on the timing of this disturbance, could see some
decent cape for Sunday afternoon. Will need to keep an eye out for
the possibility of hail.
Models then diverge a bit with the timing of a cold front for early
next week. This leads to a low confidence forecast for the timing of
precipitation Monday and Tuesday, in addition to temperatures during
this time frame.
By Wednesday, cooler air from an upper level trough should be over
the area with a few showers not out of the question.
Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 1050 PM Wednesday...
Showers throughout the area. Definitely an MVFR type of night
however IFR is not out of the question. In fact, becoming more
concerned that satellite imagery shows clearing towards khts
which could lend to forming some fog, but very difficult to tell
in this upper low controlled air mass. Basically expect crummy
flying conditions next 24 hours.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z
Forecast confidence: low
Alternate scenarios: timing of shra could vary. Amendments
likely. Post thunderstorm environments tonight may vary from
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Thursday 05/25/17
UTC 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1hrly 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
crw consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
heights consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
bkw consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
ekn consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
pkb consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
ckb consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
After 00z Friday...
IFR possible during rainfall.