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fxus61 krlx 250234 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1034 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Synopsis...
a low pressure system slowly moves through the Carolinas
through Tuesday, and then fills as it moves up the middle
Atlantic Seaboard through Wednesday night. Next front Thursday
night.

&&

Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 1030 PM Monday...

Not a lot of change with continued scattered rain showers
overnight.

As of 130 PM Monday...

The low pressure center passes south of the area into the
Carolinas tonight and Tuesday. Rain showers will be decreasing
in coverage and intensity mainly over the eastern mountains
through tonight.

Low level stratus will develop over the eastern mountains
overnight. Models show boundary layer winds of 20-25 knots
northeast mountains, with weaker winds at lower elevations.

Went closer to the blend of all models for temperatures through
the period.

&&

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...
as of 230 PM Monday...

High pressure and ridging aloft starts to build into the region
late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will soar on
Wednesday under the ridge, with highs climbing into the low to
mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Even the mountains will see
temperatures climb into the upper 60s to low 70s with strong
warm air advection at h850. Conditions will remain dry through
at least 12z Thursday, with all guidance holding off an
approaching cold front until after the short term period.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 340 PM Monday...

Guidance is in fairly good agreement with a cold front pushing
into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon. The current timing of
having the front approaching around Max heating makes for higher
probability for scattered thunderstorms. Cape values are still
looking fairly modest for the day and even with decent 0-6km
bulk shear of around 40 knots. Still not thinking widespread
severe weather at this point, but as previous forecast
mentioned, thunderstorms with heavy downpours and maybe some
damaging winds due to the decent shear may be possible.

After brief period of high pressure for the end of the work
week, things turn unsettled again for the weekend as warm front
pushes through. Temperatures are likely to soar into the mid and
possibly upper 80s. Current forecast guidance keeps the front in
our vicinity through the weekend and will be the focus for more
showers and thunderstorms.

Finally, we will have to keep an eye to see how the forecast
unfolds as we enter next week. Ensemble and operational
guidance is hinting at an anomalous low pressure tracking into
the Great Lake and dragging a strong cold front through on
Monday. With this being day 7 of the forecast, there is still
plenty to be sorted out, but will just mention the potential is
there for a significant system.

&&

Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 800 PM Monday...

Generally VFR with MVFR mixed in - mainly in showers. Continued
threat for MVFR tonight and into Tuesday morning. IFR possible
in the mountains. Wind should keep bl mixy enough to mitigate
fog.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Wednesday...

Forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of IFR low stratus along the
eastern mountains could vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Tuesday 04/25/17
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency M M h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency M M M M M h h h h h h M
bkw consistency M M M l M M M M M l l l
ekn consistency M M M h M M M M M h h l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M

After 00z Wednesday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$

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