Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 251330
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
930 am EDT Tue Jul 25 2017
high pressure will provide dry weather through at least
Wednesday. A cold front may produce some storms late in the work
week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with
improving weather expected.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 925 am Tuesday...
No changes to the forecast this morning.
As of 230am Tuesday...
The cold frontal boundary continues to push southeastward and
will progress far enough south to allow high pressure to build
down from the Great Lakes. This will allow US to enjoy the first
of what should be back-to-back days that remain dry, along with
cooler temperatures and a drier airmass. The only issue will be
early morning localized patchy fog and low clouds that linger
for a few hours past daybreak.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 230 am Tuesday...
Cooler and drier high pressure will be in control on Wednesday
before moving east Wednesday night and Thursday. As it does, SW
flow will increase, as will the head and humidity. Low pressure
approaches with its trailing cold front Thursday night into
Friday. Scattered showers and storms will increase Thursday
well ahead of the front, especially over southeast Ohio and
northern West Virginia. Showers and storms will become more
widespread Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front
slides southeast through the area. Behind the front, an
unusually cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves in during
Friday with showers and storms ending from northwest to
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 230 am Monday...
Long range models in good agreement with cooler and drier high
pressure building into the region Friday night through this
weekend. Temperatures should moderate each day under abundant
sunshine. Drier air with this high pressure will keep humidity
levels tolerable. By Monday, the high shifts east with the
heat and humidity beginning to increase.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 710 am Tuesday...
Have some early concerns about an borderline MVFR stratus deck
rotating in from the north and affecting the northern terminals
at ckb and ekn for the first few hours in the taf. Otherwise,
any other MVFR conditions will improve to VFR by around 15z, and
VFR cumulus field expected during the daylight hours.
Given the cooler and drier airmass in place in the Post cold
front environment, valley fog formation is a good bet tonight
for the usual locations, while bkw may deal with another low
stratus deck development.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: duration and extent of stratus deck this
morning may vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency M h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency M h h h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency l M h h h h h h h h h M
pkb consistency M h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency M h h h h h h h h h h M
After 12z Wednesday...
Brief periods of IFR conditions long thunderstorms likely Thursday