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fxus61 krlx 260804 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
404 am EDT sun Mar 26 2017

a cold front passes today with showers and storms expected.
Another system Monday night into Tuesday and again late in the
work week.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 225 am Sunday...

A cold front moves through the area today bringing showers and
thunderstorms. While buoyancy is on the weak side of the
spectrum, wind shear is favorable for rotating updrafts in the
storms that do form which lends to some potential for severe
storms this afternoon. The thin cape profile and saturated
column will keep storms low topped, but rainfall should be quite
efficient as pw's are in the 90th percentile for this time of
year in the 1.25" range. 1 hour ffg values support 1.25" while 3
hour ffg values are 1.5 - 2.5" which probably will not be
exceeded today though over north central WV a ffg minimum exists
and has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from the wpc.


Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...
as of 350 am Sunday...

Precipitation should be tapering off early Monday, however with
US still being in the warm sector never have pops going
completely dry before increasing again late Monday and Monday
night as another system approaches from the SW. This one not
quite as strong a the one we will see today into tonight, but
still enough for showers and thunderstorms. The GFS does show a
bit of a negative tilt to the shortwave trough. These showers
and storms should come to an end Tuesday night, with a dry day
expected Wednesday. Temperatures will run above normal through
the period.


Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
as of 350 am Sunday...

Details still pretty murky as models struggle to agree on a
system late in the week. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a surface low
and closed 500mb low in the area on Friday, but have quite
different evolutions of this system. With both showing something
do have likely pops on Friday based on a consensus blend.
High temperatures for the end of the week should be near to
just above normal, while lows will be decently above normal with
clouds around.


Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 235 am Sunday...

Generally VFR today despite a cold front moving through. Could
see some IFR form near/under thunderstorms.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Monday...

Forecast confidence: medium

Alternate scenarios: may need tempo IFR in storms today..

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date sun 03/26/17
UTC 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1hrly 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h M M l
heights consistency h h h h h h l h M l l l
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M l l
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h M M l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h l l l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h M M l

After 06z Monday...
IFR fog and low ceilings possible Sunday night as the rain
ends. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday night and


radar site krlx has a faulty component that is leading to higher
reflectivities than what should be observed. A part is on order
and will be replaced as soon as it arrives. Keep this in mind
today since there is some potential for severe weather.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...jw

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