Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 220425
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1125 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017
cold front crosses overnight and early Wednesday morning. High
pressure Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week. Cold
front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 1125 PM Tuesday...
Updated for slower timing on cold front crossing overnight and
early Wednesday morning. Slowed last band of showers,
temperature fall and transition to snow.
As of 940 PM Tuesday...
Line of showers has developed along frontogenesis zone over the
Coal fields and stretching into the Kanawha valley. Also
expecting development of showers over the southern mountains
As of 1255 PM Tuesday...
Winds will be gusty at times into this evening out ahead of an
approaching cold front from the northwest. A weak northern
stream short wave and associated surface cold front pushes
through the area late tonight. Not a whole lot of moisture with
the front, but we will see an in clouds and mostly northern
areas will have a chance for a shower. Behind the front it is
likely that we will see a brief transition to upslope snow
showers in the mountains. Very little if any accumulation is
expected through noon tomorrow as high pressure moves in fairly
quickly behind the front and cuts things off. Much cooler
tomorrow as high temperatures will run almost 20 degrees cooler
than they were today.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/...
as of 300 PM Tuesday...
Not much has changed in this period over the last 12 hours. As
cooler and drier air push into the area from the west any
remaining clouds will dissipate. Thursday and Friday will be
cooler than normal with mostly clear skies and temperatures in
the 40s and 50s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 300 PM Tuesday...
Went with a blend of models for this period as another cold
front approaches overnight Friday. Rain and snow showers are
expected, especially in the northern portions of our area. Light
snow accumulations are expected in the mountains.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 630 PM Tuesday...
Cold frontal passage will bring brief MVFR ceilings with a
broken line of showers/snow showers to the northern terminals
after 06z tonight. Clearing should be swift after 13z Wednesday
to VFR conditions as high pressure builds into the region.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing and extent of MVFR stratocu could
vary late today and tonight. Bkw and ekn ceilings could drop to
near IFR overnight.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Wednesday 11/22/17
UTC 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
crw consistency h h h h h h h l h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h l l h M M h M
bkw consistency M l M M M M M M l l l l
ekn consistency M M M M M M M M l l l l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h M M M l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h M M h h M
After 06z Thursday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.