Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 270053
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
853 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
a cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure crosses
Wednesday. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the
week. A cold front arrives Sunday.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 900 PM Monday...
Latest radar mosaic and surface observations show some showers
moving across portions of central Ohio. An area of showers and
possible storms extends from northwest Pennsylvania across Northern
Ohio into Indiana.
Latest short-range models suggest the initial showers will
dissipate while the second band moves southeast. Based on these
models, have changed the pops tonight to lower them to slight
chance initially and then ramp them up into the chance category
around midnight. Also made some changes to the timing of the
Otherwise, forecast is generally on track and only plan on
making some tweaks.
As of 200 PM Monday...
short wave trof axis will cross tonight a few showers. Isolated
to scattered shower wording in the grids as this works through.
The surface front will lag a bit...taking until late Tuesday
morning to clear the area. As such clouds will linger through
the morning hours before mixing into a scattered cu field. All
in all, another nice day on tap with below normal temps and low
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...
as of 315 am Monday...
Northwest flow behind an exiting trough will bring in
relatively cool air Tuesday night through Wednesday with
building high pressure and low moisture. Weak ridging gives way
to zonal flow with weak embedded waves traversing the mid-
levels over the Great Lakes region. These mid-level features
along with warm, moist advection in the lower levels leads to
increasing pop's across the northern zones through Thursday
night with warmer temperatures all around.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 315 am Monday...
Southwest flow through the lower and mid levels increases
temperatures/moisture and thus instability with an approaching
frontal system for the latter half of the week. Diurnal warm
sector thunderstorms and hot temperatures are forecast for
Friday and Saturday. Starting Saturday night, scattered showers
and storms precede a weak cold front as it sags southeastward
across central Appalachia. There is some disagreement regarding
the exit of this front, as it may hang up in the mountains by
Monday, so have maintained modest diurnal pops/pots though
break in shortwaves Sunday night justifies some drying.
Aviation /01z Tuesday through Saturday/...
00z Tuesday through 00z Wednesday...
As of 735 PM Monday...
VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period. An
upper level trof and surface cold front will move slowly southeast
tonight and Tuesday bringing with it more widespread clouds at
6-8 kft overnight tonight, along with some scattered showers.
Rain chances should begin across portions of southeast Ohio by
03z before spreading southeast overnight into the early morning
hours. The showers should be limited to the mountains after
A thunderstorm or two is possible across the mountain counties
A few locations may see MVFR vsbys with these showers and
storms. However, expect the MVFR conditions to be few and far
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none except MVFR fog possible kekn
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Tuesday 06/27/17
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h M h M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
After 00z Wednesday...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms in the middle Ohio
Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.