Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 251044
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
644 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017
cooler today through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances
providing a few light showers, even a thunderstorm. Dry midweek
under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 615 am Sunday...
Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary.
As of 405 am Sunday...
Minor flooding continues across portions of NE Kentucky. Waters
will recede slowly in many locations.
High pressure will provide mostly clear skies today and tonight.
This will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 70s
lowlands ranging to around 70f higher elevations.
Dry conditions will continue through tonight. Areas of fog could
be possible later overnight.
Short term /Monday through Wednesday night/...
as of 435 am Sunday...
Monday brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air on a weak, dry
cold front that will be hardly noticeable. High pressure passes
south of the area late Monday and Monday evening.
A stronger reinforcing cold front and upper level short wave
trough cross overnight Monday night and Tuesday. Models have
come into better agreement on this being the last and strongest
of several short wave troughs moving through, and that it can
Garner enough moisture for the chance for showers and
thunderstorms, the best chance for thunderstorms in the heat of
the day Tuesday midday and afternoon. The timing of the exodus
of the system is such that showers and thunderstorms will die
down and/or move out of the area early Tuesday evening.
High pressure builds in Tuesday night for a clear, calm night,
which then sets up a gorgeous day on Wednesday, with Bountiful
sunshine and comfortably low humidity, especially for late
As the high exits Wednesday night, a return southerly flow of
warmer and more humid air ensues.
Central guidance temperatures accepted, below normal early on,
then getting closer to normal Wednesday afternoon and night.
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
as of 435 am Sunday...
Upper level low flattens this period, as surface high pressure
exits. This results in a low level south to southwest flow of
increasingly warm and humid air, beneath westerly upper level
flow. With ripples in the upper level flow, this will bring an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms into the middle
Ohio Valley Thursday, and then throughout the area on Friday,
the thunderstorms being mainly diurnally driven.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases further Saturday,
as a cold front, and stronger upper level short wave trough,
approach. This feature may push on through the area on Sunday.
Central guidance temperatures accepted, which are a little
above normal. The latest mex is even higher for highs Thursday
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 645 am Sunday...
High pressure will prevail with widespread VFR conditions
through the period. Infrared satellite imagery and sfc obs indicate
that some mid level clouds have develop over WV during the
morning hours. These clouds should dissipate by mid morning.
Flow will be mainly west today turning calm tonight.
Diurnal low level cu should develop this afternoon dissipating
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Monday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: fog formation tonight may be less widespread.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency M M M M h h h h h h M M
ekn consistency M l l M h h h h h h M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
After 12z Monday...
IFR possible in River Valley fog early Monday morning.