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000 
FXUS61 KRLX 300208
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1006 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits tonight. A warm front pushes in late 
Thursday, ahead of a system that crosses Thursday night and 
Friday. High pressure crosses Sunday. Next system Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1006 PM Wednesday...

Still have several hours of good radiation in the northern and 
central mountain valleys, so have lowered overnight temperatures in 
those regions. 


As of 547 PM Wednesday...

Updated forecast to lower sky cover this evening based on latest 
satellite and meso model trends.


As of 127 PM Wednesday...

Clouds have been much slower to clear than previously thought.
However, they are now clearing, especially from the north and 
west.

The clouds should continue to clear during the evening hours.
Clouds will then begin to increase across portions of the
mountains by late tonight, as winds turn easterly ahead of an 
area of low pressure.

The low pressure system will continue to approach the area
Thursday, with a warm front expected to push into the region 
from the southwest during the afternoon.

Expect precipitation chances will increase on Thursday. 
However, the models differ about the onset of the precipitation 
chances.

Latest 12 UTC NAM suggests that much of the area should remain 
dry with some low precipitation chances developing in the 
mountains. Latest 12 UTC GFS is much faster with precipitation
chances across much of our NE KY and SE OH counties by daybreak.
The precipitation chances will then spread across the remainder
of the area during the day.

Previous forecast indicated a trend which was a compromise of
these models and see no reason to make any wholesale changes to
that forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Wednesday...

The next in the series of spring southern stream bowling balls 
approaches Thursday night, and then rolls across Friday and
Friday night. Showers associated with the warm front may be
lifting up through the middle Ohio valley Thursday evening. 

Otherwise, models, most notably the NAM, are slower with this
system, delaying the main round of showers and thunderstorms
associated with the cold front, so that, with the loss of 
heating, thunder is more likely Friday than Thursday, albeit 
more like morning and midday rather than Friday afternoon.

The system pulls out of the area late Friday and Friday night,
with upslope rain showers / drizzle lasting into Saturday. High
pressure brings some clearing Saturday night.

Temperatures and dew points in line with previous forecast and
central guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 PM Wednesday...

After a dry close to the weekend, the next spring southern
stream bowling ball approaches late Sunday night and Monday, and
crosses late Monday night into Tuesday, and the one after that 
may already be approaching by the end of the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures continue above normal including behind the
cold front Wednesday, with central guidance staying largely in 
line with the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 726 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions can be expected tonight. Some scattered 
showers/thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, which could contain 
some restrictions. Outside of the showers and thunderstorms, expect 
VFR conditions. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Due to the scattered nature of showers/storms 
on Thursday, timing is not included in the TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 03/30/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM

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