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000 
FXUS61 KRLX 261039
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
639 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control today. Mostly dry cold fronts later
Wednesday and again Friday. High pressure for the weekend. A 
return to normal temperatures last half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

Minimal changes to the forecast this morning.

As of 225 AM Tuesday... 

Models are hinting at better low level moisture depth over the 
central and southern mountains with heating today, leading to a 
bit more robust cumulus field developing. However, still will be
tough to get any showers out of this vertical growth. Pattern
remains the same with a southwest to northeast oriented ridge.
No significant changes to the temperature forecast, and drop the
dewpoints during mixing today undercutting the guidance a bit in
that facet. Valley fog expected again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

Amplifying northern stream upper trough over the northeastern
CONUS allows a cold front to sweep across the Ohio Valley later
Wednesday and Wednesday night, and pushes Maria out to sea with
no effect on our area. This will be a moisture starved front 
thanks in great part to Maria, although with the help of diurnal
heating we have just a slight chance of a light shower across 
the far north with the front later Wednesday. Another moisture 
starved cold front will drop across the area Friday, with only a
slight chance of a light shower across the far north. The big change 
behind these fronts will be a return to near normal temperatures
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

Upper ridging again builds over the Ohio valley with high
pressure and dry weather dominating this period. Temperatures 
will still be near normal through the weekend, but a slow waring
trend is in store for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

Conditions to improve from valley fog shortly after 12Z this
morning, leading to VFR through at least 03Z tonight, when
inconsistent valley fog will being to form again. Expecting a
more robust cumulus field over the mountains today, but still
VFR and very low shower chances.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Morning valley fog possible through Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

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