Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 281428
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1026 am EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
warm front lifts through late today into tonight. Next cold
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
as of 1020 am Friday...
Only very minor tweaks for today's forecast as it appear to be on
As of 620 am Friday...
Cold front has exited to the east. Showers from last evening have
also moved out/dissipated. Some fog out there early this morning,
mainly where showers occurred Thursday evening.
Relatively weak high pressure will cross today with a warm
front developing and lifting north this evening into tonight.
Have some low end pops in the tri-state towards 00z, but best
chance of showers and storms will be in northwestern corner of
County Warning Area tonight as a 500mb shortwave trough slides through the mid
and upper Ohio River valley. Forecast soundings show a decent
cap in place, however if convection is able to break through the
cap, there is abundant shear and some elevated instability for
storms to work with. Will include mention of isolated strong to
severe storms in the severe weather potential statement in Ohio River valley.
Short term /8 PM this evening through Monday night/...
as of 410 am Friday...
As a warm frontal feature lifts north early Saturday there
could be a few stronger storms near the boundary, but the front
moves quickly to the north leaving US in the warm sector for the
majority of this period with some potential for diurnal shower
The main front of the week arrives Monday as a strengthening low
pressure systems surges northward into the Great Lakes region.
Good diurnal timing alignment with fropa may help to keep a
non-zero severe storm threat.
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
as of 410 am Friday...
Cooler air will push in behind the cold front for a dry period.
Remnant mesoscale convective system energy probably the biggest player in precip through
Thursday as an upper level trough Ushers the remnants east into
our area by Thursday morning.
Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 620 am Friday...
Any lingering fog should clear up quickly over the next couple
hours. Brief high pressure today with VFR in some passing mid
to high clouds. Showers and storms expected tonight as warm
front develops and lifts north. Included thunderstorms in the vicinity at this point.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: dissipation of fog this morning may vary.
Timing of showers and storms tonight may vary, and may need
restrictions in T-storms.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency M h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency M M M M h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency l l h h h h h h h h h M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency l M h h h h h h h h h M
After 12z Saturday...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.