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fxus61 krlx 191037 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
637 am EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Synopsis...
a weak front today brings a shower or storm to northern areas.
High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front mid
week. Cooler and drier for the end of the week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 625 am Saturday...

Updated to increase cirrus canopy this morning per
satellite/obs.

As of 300 am Saturday...

Models have a short wave and weakening cold front crossing the area
later today. Models indicate only a modest return flow of moisture
ahead of this front, and more importantly weakening support aloft.
The forecast soundings are rather unimpressive for instability, but
cannot rule out a Summer sun to help destabilize things a bit this
afternoon. Will paint a chance of showers and possibly a storm
across the north later today with this feature, as this will be the
area of best support and moisture pooling. Elsewhere, will keep rain
free.
Any convection will rapidly decrease this evening with the loss
of heating and as high pressure builds in tonight. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal today, but not that humid.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
as of 235 am Saturday...

Return flow sets up to bring the high dewpoints, which really
had not fallen off much with the last cold front on Friday, to
more tropical type levels again, and temperatures back towards
90f in The Lowlands through Tuesday. Some isolated pops exist
during the short term in the mountains with generally zonal
flow aloft. This will be the last of the heat in the foreseeable
future with the next cold front pushing into the forecast area
Tuesday night.

Expecting a cumulus field to develop in the daytime heating on
Monday for the eclipse. Should be more sun than clouds, but
cannot foresee a completely clear sky with this issuance. Cloud
coverage could be a bit more over the mountains.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
as of 235 am Saturday...

Deep open wave pushes through the Great Lakes with an airmass
changing cold front from Wednesday through the end of the week.
Dewpoints should be back into the 50s in the Canadian airmass
and lowlands largely in the mid to upper 70s for The Lowlands
Thursday and Friday. Overall trough pattern looks to persist
over the eastern Continental U.S. Going beyond day 7.

&&

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
12z Saturday thru 12z Sunday...
as of 625 am Saturday...

After isolated IFR River Valley fog early, a moisture lacking
cold front will weaken as it crosses the area today, possibly
generating a few showers or a storm in the north.

Today...
VFR. Cirrus overspreading most of the area this morning. During
the afternoon, ceilings at or above 6000 feet across the north half of
the area with a shower or storm possible. Elsewhere, scattered-broken
mid-high clouds at or above 10000 feet above ground level. Light south wind becoming
west by 15z at 5 to 10 kts.

Tonight...
clouds exit northeastern WV by 03z as high pressure builds in.
Under mostly clear skies and near calm winds, look for
widespread IFR River Valley fog after 06z.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z
Sunday...

Forecast confidence: high, except medium with fog.

Alternate scenarios: timing, density, and location of fog
tonight could vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency M M M h h h h h h h M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
ekn consistency M M M h h h h h h h M M
pkb consistency M h h h h h h h h h M M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M

After 12z Sunday...
dense River Valley fog possible each morning.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jmv/26

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