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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1046 am EDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016

Synopsis...
increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week
progresses. Cold front approaches later in the week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1045 am Wednesday...

Forecast on track thus far. An abundance of high clouds noted over
the region amid a light S flow. Models have backed off on isolated
shra this afternoon and put more emphasis on a mid level system
tonight...with a decaying band of shra/tsra moving thru the area
tonight.

Updated grids to reflect above thinking which resulted in little
change from previous forecast.

As of 345 am Wednesday...

After a brief respite from the heat and humidity...models are
bringing more Summer like conditions back. Today will be the
transition day as a weak warm front lifts northeastward across the
area. While deeper moisture will bring increased clouds
today...lack of dynamics and instability will limit precip
chances...as suggested by the models. So after some patchy early
morning River Valley fog...will just go with increased clouds and
sprinkles as the weak front crosses the area today. While
temperatures will be warmer than yesterday under southerly
flow...clouds will temper highs to the mid and upper 80s. For
tonight...look for warm and humid conditions in the warm sector
with varying amounts of clouds...and lows near 70 with less fog
than this morning. Will bring a low chance of showers in the north
later tonight as models do show an upper disturbance affecting
this area.

&&

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
as of 345 am Wednesday...

Hot and humid weather returns to the region in the short term
period...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Still looking at
a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday...particularly
across the north...as a disturbance moves through. Some storms could
contain rather gusty winds...mainly across the north...as winds
aloft strengthen to 30-40 kts. Greater risk for severe/strong storms
will lie just to the north of the cwa however.

Surface frontal boundary...associated with surface low moving east
across Canada...will sag south into the region later in the day
Friday. Still uncertainty with timing...and how far south frontal
boundary will trek...with the possibility that the front will stall
out or wash out across the County Warning Area. There will be little forcing
associated with the front...and expecting mainly isolated showers
and thunderstorms...mainly during peak heating hours. Somewhat
drier/less humid air may filter in across the north for Saturday
behind the front...but looking like at least southern 2/3 of County Warning Area
will continue to remain socked in with higher humidity.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 335 PM Tuesday...

Stubborn high pressure continues through early next week though
decaying fronts do erode in the regions general vcnty. One thing
to keep an eye on is a developing tropical system that is
currently progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico during the
middle part of next week and may eventually provide a break to
our dry pattern. For now, have only slightly bumped pops in the
extended though with very little confidence.

&&

Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 6 am Wednesday...
12z Wednesday through 12z Thursday...

Clouds will thicken and lower today...as a weak warm front with
deeper moisture moves across the area. River Valley MVFR/IFR fog
will dissipate around 13z.

After 13z...with any fog having dissipated...becoming ceilings
6000-8000 feet with the batch of deep moisture associated with the
warm front moving across the area from west to east. Not enough
dynamics to put more than low chance of measurable precip...so
will leave showers out of tafs. Generally south winds 5 to 8 kts.

After 00z...clouds decreasing across the south and central areas
with departure of warm front...but an upper disturbance from the
north and west will keep VFR ceilings 6000-10000 feet up north.
These VFR ceilings will then spread south and east after 06z to
encompass most of the area by 12z. Light to near calm winds
tonight with even less fog.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Thursday...

Forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing and density of fog may vary overnight.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1hrly 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M

After 12z Thursday...
IFR in morning River Valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jmv/sl
near term...jmv/30
short term...sl
long term...jw
aviation...jmv

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