Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
818 PM EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016
hot and humid as mid Summer like conditions return.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 5 PM Thursday...
removed pop across the area during the next few hours following
satellite and radar trends. Rest of forecast remains
Previous discussion below...
as of 145 PM Thursday...
The warmth and muggies are in full force today and this looks to
be the start of a prolonged spell of hot and humid conditions.
The culprit for this pattern is a persistent upper level ridge
centered over the S Appalachians with abundant low level
moisture...helping to create the tropical feel in the air.
As for sensible wx...the cu from today to wane this evening with
loss of heating. Before it does so there will be isolated
shra/tsra around in this rich low level moist environment. A weak
frontal boundary will encroach overnight and all but dissipate
with just a small chance for a shower across north WV. Any dense River
Valley fog should be confined to locales that received rain this
Friday will feature more heat and humidity but probably not as
high dewpoints as was observed today. Thus thinking any heat
advisory headlines will be avoided with heat index values topping
out in the mid to upper 90s across The Lowlands.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...
as 330 PM Thursday...
No changes necessary...a fairly quiet pattern. Hot and humid
weather to continue across the region...with upper ridging across
the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible...mainly during peak heating hours...with best chances
across the higher terrain counties. Heat indices over the weekend
will reach into the mid to upper 90s.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as 330 PM Thursday...
Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a
tropical system slides westward towards the US Mainland, however,
quite a bit of model uncertainty so track of system is not well
defined. Each subsequent run has been moving the system eastward
posing less of a threat to our area. Flow turns more zonal over
our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this
time. Maintained schc to chance pops for the dirty ridge as it
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 800 PM Thursday...
00z Friday through 00z Saturday...
After sunset, diurnal heating decrease as well as the low level cu
and isolated showers. Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated at
least through 06z. Boundary layer wind is less than last nights.
With mostly clear skies and weak flow, areas of dense fog can
develop mainly over the river valleys. There was rain reported at
ckb. Therefore, expect ckb to fog overnight together with ekn.
A weak frontal boundary struggles to crosses south Friday. Low
chance of precipitation exists ahead of this boundary. Therefore, pcpn not
included in tafs at this time.
Any fog will dissipate by 12 to 13z Friday. There could be a
brief period of MVFR clouds during the morning hours. We are
looking at just a sct cu field as the day progresses...in the 4
thsd foot range.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: extent of dense fog is in question overnight.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Friday 08/26/16
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency M h h h h h h M M M M l
heights consistency M h h h h h h h h h M l
bkw consistency M h h h h h h h h h M l
ekn consistency M M l l l M M M l l l M
pkb consistency h h h l l l l l l M M l
ckb consistency M M h l l l l l h l l M
After 00z Saturday...
IFR in morning River Valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover.