Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 200240
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons is on
tap through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure
system crosses early next week.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 810 PM Thursday...
High pressure in control. No changes.
As of 225 PM Thursday...
These near term shifts continue to remain void of any
significant weather. There will be a weak front crossing this
evening across the northern reaches of the County Warning Area but will have
little if any impact other than a few clouds. Expect another
quick drop in temps this evening in the valleys and hollows.
Overnight lows will see a few degrees improvement from last
night/this morning, continuing the trend over the past few days.
The boundary winds will be a bit more relaxed tonight, so expect
some dense River Valley fog, primarily hugging the main Stem
One can basically paste today's weather in for tomorrow, with
sunshine amid temperatures running 8 to 12 degrees above
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
as of 220 PM Thursday...
A high pressure system will continue to provide dry conditions
Friday. This high pressure will drift east of the area resulting
in warm, and continued dry weather under southwest flow through
Used the super blend of models and bias corrected sref models
for temperatures through the period.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 220 PM Thursday...
A strong upper level low pressure system in the northern stream
will drive a sfc cold front over the Ohio Valley Sunday night. A
second low pressure system at the sfc will produce southwest
flow, increasing winds, and dewpoints by Monday night into
Tuesday. Both features will become in phase to enhance showers
or storms Monday through Tuesday. Allowed pops to increase to
likely for now across the entire area for Monday through
Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the
Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
00z Friday thru 00z Saturday...
as of 1040 PM Thursday...
As of 745 PM Thursday...
Only change was to very briefly add IFR at ekn, and MVFR at most
other terminals in fog early Friday morning.
As of 230 PM Thursday...
A weak front crosses this evening with perhaps a few clouds
across northern terminals. Otherwise dense River Valley fog once
again tonight, though likely remaining somewhat shallow and
tight to the riverbanks. This thinking keeps dense fog out of
the terminals once again. One fly in the ointment is boundary
layer winds will be lighter than last night so there is at least some
concern pkb/ekn/crw could experience IFR or worse.
VFR conditions on Friday with basically another cloud free sky.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: fog may affect northern terminals overnight
if low level winds relax more than expected.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Friday 10/20/17
UTC 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1hrly 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency h h h h h M M l l l l M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
After 00z Saturday...
dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and
in rain at times early next week.