Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
401 am EDT sun Jul 24 2016
hot and humid weather continues today with an isolated T-shower
possible. Weak front drops through Monday night lingering into
Near term /through tonight/...
another hot and humid day expected. Have similar afternoon
temperatures, with slightly higher dewpoints when compared to
yesterday. This leads to another day with heat indices around 100,
so have opted to issue a heat advisory for most lowland counties.
Do need to include a bit of uncertainty with this...as mesoscale convective system in
Northwest Indiana could leave some cloud debris which could impact
temperatures a bit. Even more impactful would be if an area of
showers or thunderstorms survives or redevelops and crosses the
northern County Warning Area. More on that below.
Speaking of that mesoscale convective system...most models show it decaying through the
morning and not making it to County Warning Area. That has been the overall trend
with mcss the last few nights as well. However, models do indicate
that a weak spin associated with the decaying mesoscale convective system will move
across the northern County Warning Area later today. This could be enough to kick
off some isolated thundershowers especially with the heating of
the day. Keeping a close eye on hi-res models to see if an
increase in pops would be warranted across the north. For now,
the hi-res guidance is keeping any more organized feature north
of the County Warning Area across Northern Ohio into PA.
Weak upper level disturbance continue flowing by tonight...so kept
some isolated pops going across the northwestern County Warning Area.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
a weak cold front along approaches from the northwest to increase
clouds and chances for precipitation later Monday into Tuesday. Models show
some disagreement in the coverage, timing and intensity of
possible showers and storms. Leaned more to the GFS in coverage of
precipitation more numerous than the NAM and faster than the European model (ecmwf).
The NAM shows ample sfc cape, low deep layered shear and
precipitable water around 2 inches. These ingredients will be
enough to produce heavy downpours and produce some water problems.
Used mainly the super blend numbers for temperatures through the
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
the front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday
with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon
shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW Virginia in the better moisture. This
front dissolves on Thursday as the next S/W trof and surface low
approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the
afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains.
Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
fog beginning to develop in river valleys. Stayed fairly close to
the lamp for fog through this morning, with dense fog in areas.
Fog should dissipate shortly after 12z, with VFR expected today.
Isolated T-shower possible this afternoon, and should complex over
northern in survive coverage could be higher.
Confidence and alternate scenarios...
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Monday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date sun 07/24/16
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h M M M l l l M h h h h
heights consistency h M M M M M M M h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency M l l l l l l l h h h h
pkb consistency M M M l l l l M h h h h
ckb consistency h h M M M M M M h h h h
After 06z Monday...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.
&&With the front meandering thru at least the S zones
Tuesday...have kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening
hours on Tuesday. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by
Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping
afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW Virginia in the better
WV...heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
Ohio...heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
Kentucky...heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for