Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV
420 am EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

high pressure crosses today, but maintains dry weather across the
area much of the weekend. Cold fronts cross Sunday night and then
next Thursday night, but temperatures average above normal.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 420 am Friday...

No significant changes were necessary to the near term period.
Overall, area should remain dry, as high pressure continues to build
into the region from the west. Morning clouds should clear/lift by
late morning/early afternoon, for a mostly sunny, and warm day, with
light surface winds.

Tonight, generally clear, although a few high clouds may skirt by
across the far north as a low pressure system moves east across the
Great Lakes. Not expecting much fog development tonight, although it
will be possible in deep/sheltered river valleys. Went with a
Ridge/Valley temperature split for the overnight hours, with
temperatures generally in the 40s for much of the area.


Short term /Saturday through Monday night/...
as of 420 am Friday...

High pressure south of the area provides dry and unseasonably mild
weather for most of the weekend.

An upper level short wave trough crosses the area Sunday afternoon
and evening while another passes in parallel, but not phased with,
the former, north of the area. It is the northern short that
pushes a cold front across the upper Ohio River valley Sunday
afternoon. The front then becomes oriented from west to east as it
sinks southward through the forecast area late Sunday and Sunday

The best chance for showers associated with the front is Sunday
afternoon, as the short waves cross. Both short wave trough will
push east of the area Sunday night. Left the chance for thunder in
the forecast given models concur on an axis of unstable air ahead
of the front, across northern portions of the area.

Any showers and thunderstorms should dissipate Sunday evening as
the sun sets and the upper forcing moves east. However, as the
front moves only slowly southward, associated low level moisture
will linger through Monday, and so will clouds. Clearing startsto
take place from southwest to northeast Monday night, as the front
retreats, as a warm front.

Temperatures close to guidance and previous. It will be well above
normal, except the front will pull temperatures down closer to,
but still above normal across the north Sunday night and Monday.


Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
as of 420 am Friday...

Temperatures quickly climb well above normal for midweek, with the
warm front well north and east of the area, and high pressure to
the south. This also spells a dry interlude.

Another upper level short wave trough will push a new cold front
pushes southward through the area Thursday night, pulling
temperatures back down closer to, but still above normal, to end
the period. There is the chance for showers Thursday into
Thursday night, as the front crosses.

This front should push well south of the area Friday, for a dry
start to the first weekend of November.


Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 130 am Friday...

Widespread MVFR conditions, with local IFR conditions across some
mountain sites including kbkw in northwesterly flow, to continue
through at least 12z, when gradual clearing to VFR is expected,
with all sites progged to be VFR by 16-18z. Light surface winds.

Patchy MVFR fog may develop late tonight, towards or after 06z,
mainly in sheltered/Deep Mountain river valleys such as at site

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Saturday...

Forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of improvement to VFR may vary from

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Friday 10/28/16
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h M M M h M M M M M M M
heights consistency M M M M h h M M h M M M
bkw consistency l M h M h h M M M M M M
ekn consistency h h h h h M M M M l M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h M M M l M M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h M l M

After 06z Saturday...
no widespread IFR expected.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...trm
long term...trm

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations