Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 krev 212153
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
253 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019
A cold front late Sunday and Sunday night will bring breezy conditions,
shower chances, and a cool down for Monday. A warmup will occur Tuesday
and Wednesday before another, much colder weather system brings
gusty winds late week along with much colder temperatures and
shower chances Friday through the weekend.
High pressure will build over northeast California, the Sierra, and
western Nevada through tonight before a fast-moving wave pushes a cold
front through the region late Sunday and Sunday night. As far as winds
Sunday afternoon and evening, they will pick up, but the timing
of the front is late in the day (near or after dark along the I-80
corridor), with 700 mb winds not maximizing until the evening
Sunday. The current expectation is for peak wind gusts mostly in
the 20-30 mph range, with wind-prone spots along the Highway
395/I-580 corridor reaching up to 35 mph. With this in mind, will
not issue any lake wind advisories although there will be some
chop later in the day and into the evening.
With the Sunday night system taking a slider-like track into western
Nevada, light rain (and snow above 9000 feet) showers are possible
down to around Highway 50 overnight into Monday with a few showers
working south of Highway 50 for the day Monday.
High pressure builds back overhead Monday night and Tuesday for drier
conditions with high temperatures rebounding 5-10 degrees between
Monday and Tuesday. -Snyder
Long term...Wednesday through Saturday...
With the area wedged in between a trough to the east and a ridge to
the west, Wednesday will be quiet weather-wise. Expect generally
clear skies, light winds, and near normal temperatures. This will
all begin to change on Thursday as a longwave trough moves in.
Like the last forecast cycle, changes were made in the Friday time
frame with some for Saturday, too.
Most of the day on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday. However,
ridge winds will begin to increase ahead of the trough, with breezy
afternoon valley winds. Clouds will increase through the day as the
trough drops south, with some slight pops moving into far northern
Nevada and northeast California by late Thursday evening.
Widespread showers will move into the area overnight Thursday into
Friday morning. Coverage will increase through the day on Friday.
This is where most of the changes were made as pops were increased
area-wide. Winds were increased along the ridges, with Friday being
gusty even down to the valleys. There will also be a noticeable
temperature change Friday, with temperatures falling 10+ degrees
from Thursday afternoon. This will make for a chilly Saturday
morning. Light snow accumulations will be possible above 8,000'
Confidence is increasing for a deep trough to impact the West Coast
next weekend into early next week. At the moment, there does not
seem to be a defined break in between the two systems. Thus, ridge
winds were kept elevated through Saturday but not as strong as
Friday. This may be adjusted over the coming days so check back
for updates. Either way, this looks to be another wet, cold system
to start the the fall season. -Cassie
Light winds and clear skies this afternoon for all area terminals.
This will begin to change Sunday as southwest winds increase ahead
of an approaching trough. Expect gusts 20-25kts, with increasing
clouds. A chance of showers will increase through the day on Sunday,
lasting through Monday. After a brief break Tuesday-Wednesday, a
series of troughs will end the week. -Cassie