Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 krev 152010
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
110 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018
Another round of cold temperatures is expected tonight. While lows
will remain rather cooler through much of the week, high will warm
to above normal as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area. The
forecast remains dry with no signals for significant storms through
the upcoming week. There are indications the pattern will shift to
a more unsettled and wetter scenario next week.
An extended period of dry weather is expected into the early part
of the coming weekend. Gusty east winds over the Sierra ridges
this evening and overnight signal the last vestige of influence
from a low over Arizona. This low will be pulling away and filling
slowly over the next few days while a high builds into the region.
Tuesday will see another period of cold morning lows but highs
will rebound to near normal as low level cold air advection wanes.
By Wednesday warmer air will start to move into the forecast area
aloft. This warming aloft will keep inversions in place through
at least Wednesday and could result in poor to fair mixing each
day for prescribed Burns.
As the ridge becomes more fully developed Thursday and Friday a
short-lived pseudo-Rex block forms with the high to our north and
a closed low over Southern California. While still providing
light east winds at the surface...this will allow daytime
temperatures to claw back well above normal by the end of the week
and stave off any undercutting of the ridge for a few days.
That begins to change by Saturday and Sunday as the blocking
pattern collapses and the ridge axis starts to drift east. Model
simulations are starting to open the low over Southern California as
a wave and lift it northeast while a second shortwave trough
moves toward the region from the west. That May Draw just enough
moisture northward into the forecast area for a few showers late
Monday. We will add some slight chances to Monday afternoon and
evening to account for this possibility. This is a relatively new
feature so some caution is advised as confidence in its
occurrence is rather low.
Gusty east winds will continue over the Sierra ridges this
evening and overnight before decreasing Tuesday. This will cause
continued turbulence aloft just over and west of the Sierra. The
lighter winds will settle over the forecast area through the rest
of the week. Surface winds will also become light for much of the
VFR conditions area expected through the week with little in the
way of clouds most days. Fog possibilities are limited for ktrk
until about Friday when the flow just of the surface becomes more
favorable for fog formation at the Airport.