Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
259 am PDT Sat Jun 23 2018
Hot and dry weather continues, high temperatures remain 5-10
degrees above average with the hottest temperatures expected early
next week. Light winds are forecast the next couple days with
stronger afternoon breezes returning on Monday.
Clear skies, light winds, and above average temperatures continue
through the weekend. A trough brushing by northeastern Nevada
over the weekend will keep usual afternoon Zephyr winds at a
minimum. Light northerly afternoon breezes with gusts 10-20 mph
this afternoon in western Nevada with lighter winds expected in
the Sierra today. Very light winds are expected areawide on
Above average temperatures with mid 90s in western Nevada and 80s
in the Sierra may feel warmer than usual without the respite of
afternoon breezes. Fortunately once the flaming Ball of fire in
the sky GOES down, overnight temperatures will continue to cool
to near average. Overnight temperatures will dip to around 60
degrees in lower elevations and upper 30s to upper 40s in the
By Monday, a trough moving through the Pacific northwest will
enhance afternoon winds. Monday is likely to be the hottest day of
the week, and along with the dry conditions and increased
afternoon winds, areas of critical fire weather conditions are
likely in western Nevada. (For more see fire weather section).
Long term...Tuesday through Friday..
Very few changes were made to the inherited forecast as the model
solutions are in good agreement through Wednesday and differences in
the solutions raise questions regarding skewing toward any particular
solution beyond Wednesday.
Flat flow develops Tuesday with dry westerly flow at all levels. By
Wednesday the flow aloft begins to buckle as another fast moving
wave approaches. This should produce breezy conditions Wednesday.
There is a very small chance of showers over the Sierra in Mono
County...but it is so small we will not mention it for now.
By Thursday the deterministic models have flip-flopped with the GFS
starting to dig a more amplified trough into the region while the
European model (ecmwf) is more progressive and less amplified. The GFS has some
support from gefs members...but not enough to adopt that solution
completely. We will leave precipitation out of the forecast for now
and see how the models play out the next few runs. We will lower
temperatures just a few degrees for Friday and increase clouds in
deference to the GFS.
VFR conditions are expected the next few days across the forecast
area. Relatively light north winds today shift to the east early
Sunday. A ridge axis slides east Sunday afternoon and evening as an
upper level trough of low pressure approaches. This trough...and its
associated surface reflection...should cause winds to increase
Monday with some gusts in excess of 35 kts possible...especially
north of Highway 50.
Hot and dry conditions persist through the weekend and into the
middle of next week. North breezes today become easterly early
Sunday before shifting to the west-southwest late in the day.
Fire weather concerns increase next week. An approaching area of
low pressure will bring increased winds Monday...but little increase
in humidity. Any possibility of precipitation should stay well north
of the Oregon border. The combination of gusty winds and low
humidity should result in critical or near critical conditions for
Monday. We will check with our partners to determine receptiveness
of fuels before issuing any watches or warnings.
Winds become slightly lighter for next Tuesday then increase
again Wednesday and Thursday. Humidity values will remain rather
low for most areas through Thursday. This will mean localized
areas of critical to near critical conditions are possible through
much of next week.