Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
319 PM PDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016
dry air will filter in across the region leading to stable
conditions with a break from shower and storm activity through
Thursday. There is a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms Friday
and Saturday well south of Highway 50. Breezy conditions return
to the Sierra and western Nevada Sunday afternoon as the next
system over the Pacific approaches the West Coast.
Drier air has filtered over all of the eastern Sierra and northern
and western Nevada today, with dewpoints down as much as 20 to 25
degrees over yesterday afternoon. The drier air should keep any
convection limited to a few afternoon cumulus, mainly over Mono
and southern Mineral counties through Friday morning. Also, dry
air combined with mainly light overnight winds should allow for
large diurnal temperature swings of 35-45 degrees for the next few
nights. The only exception could be tonight north of Highway 50 in
Nevada where areas susceptible to northerly flow could see a
persistent breeze overnight to restrict radiational cooling.
Friday, the NAM and GFS hint at mid-late afternoon cumulus buildups
over southern Mono and Mineral counties where a light surface to
700 mb convergence/thermal boundary sets up. The 12z/18z GFS
simulations produce shallower convection with no precipitation
while the NAM simulations produce isolated deeper convection with
a low threat for showers or thunderstorms. For now, kept the
running slight chances for portions of Mono and Mineral counties.
On Saturday, the GFS/NAM stabilize things a bit as high pressure
strengthens overhead so no thunderstorms are expected then.
Long term...Sunday through Wednesday...
For early next week, afternoon and evening breezes will increase
as a broad trough moves into the Pacific northwest and increases
thermal gradients across northern California and Nevada. This will increase
the fire concern at least somewhat as the flow aloft remains dry
and stable from the southwest. -Snyder
VFR conditions will persist through Thursday with no convection in
the forecast. Westerly afternoon winds are expected today with gusts
to 20 kts. Winds will become light and northeasterly on Thursday.
Dry weather will continue into the weekend with light winds. Slight
chances for storms return near kmmh for Friday.
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