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fxus65 krev 142055 
afdrev

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
1255 PM PST Wed Nov 14 2018

Synopsis...

High pressure will lead to dry and stagnant conditions through
the week. Localized degradation of air quality is possible under
valley inversions. A pattern change next week may open the door
for a couple of weak storm systems but heavy precipitation is
unlikely.

&&

Discussion...
no major changes to the forecast today. Main concerns are the extent
of smoke in the short term and the potential for rain next week.
There is still a chance for a storm to impact the Sierra and western
Nevada during the Thanksgiving Holiday. While we don't quite have
details for this storm yet (since it's over a week away), it's that
time of year to plan for winter driving conditions. Don't be that
driver caught out on the High Sierra passes without the proper
supplies: chains, extra food, blankets, water, etc. Even if the
storm doesn't directly impact the region, it is best to plan for
longer than usual driving conditions because of the Holiday and to
have these winter supplies in your vehicle.

With very light transport winds, smoke should mostly remain on the
west side of the Sierra. Although there is some smoke and haze
across northeastern California and northwestern Nevada today, some of this may
be due to strong inversions from day to day local sources of
pollution. Any additional smoke filtering in from the Camp fire
certainly wouldn't help with air quality, but for the most part the
worst air quality will remain west of the Sierra and in northern
California. For air quality information check airnow.Gov

High pressure will maintain its hold across California and Nevada with light
winds and poor mixing expected through the next few days. Inversions
will keep valley areas cool during the day, with only modest warming
of temperatures in the higher terrain above the inversions.
Generally plan for little variation in temperatures through the week.

Run-to-run simulations continue to be indecisive with the pattern
for next week, including the potential for rain. For Monday-Tuesday,
it does appear that a closed low will first advance towards the
Southern California coastline and allow the ridge to buckle
slightly. This may allow the storm door to open into the West Coast.
Latest GFS keeps the chances for rain entirely in the Pacific
northwest for the Thanksgiving Holiday, while the European model (ecmwf) holds onto
the idea of increased chances for precipitation for the Sierra and
western Nevada. We will be monitoring the potential for this storm
to impact the west through the week and hopefully the simulations
come into better agreement with its evolution. Either way if you
have travel plans for the Thanksgiving Holiday, be sure to check
roads before you go and keep a winter kit and supplies in your
vehicle. -Edan



&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions continue with areas of high clouds and light winds
for the next several days. Plan for modest reductions of slantwise
visibility in parts of northeast California today due to haze aloft from the
Camp wildfire, but overall smoke-related impacts to aviation should
remain well west of the Sierra crest. Mjd/edan

&&

Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
California...none.
&&

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