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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
218 PM PDT sun Jul 24 2016

Synopsis...
hot and dry conditions with mainly light late day breezes are
expected for the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds into
the Great Basin. Late in the weekend, some increase in moisture
will lead to a few thunderstorms.



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Discussion...
the main story will continue to be the heat for the middle of the
week. High pressure will strengthen over Nevada into Thursday with
temperatures continuing to warm. Winds will remain light into
Tuesday with even the lack of a Zephyr as temps in the California Central
Valley are also hot. Highs will begin to hit the century mark for
western Nevada valleys Monday and continue into Friday.

Eventually 700 mb temps are forecast to reach 17-19c Wednesday and
Thursday for the two hottest days. Some record highs are possible
those days, and with the basin finally heating up, a late day
Zephyr is possible in extreme western Nevada and around the Tahoe
basin.

The next question will be thunderstorms as the high weakens and
slowly shifts east. Thursday will be very hot and as occurs in
most cases, the hottest day often sees the initial day of isolated
thunderstorms. I have added some along the Sierra crest south of
Tahoe for Thursday afternoon given this idea. However, a storm or
two is also possible over the higher terrain of eastern Sierra and
Plumas counties, but less likely. (This has occurred in a couple
previous cases.

Then the ec and gefs have come around to the GFS showing the high
center moving off to the east with a weak trough off the coast by
Friday. This will allow some moisture seep from the south and be
able to fuel at least a few more thunderstorms. Friday and
Saturday I have gradually spread the threat of storms north each
day. On Sunday, the high moves far enough east with more southwest
flow across the Sierra. This should shunt most thunderstorms east
although the threat does look to remain over Mono and Mineral
counties then.

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Aviation...
VFR conditions through Wednesday with light winds. A late day
Zephyr is possible Tuesday, but more likely Wednesday.

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Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
California...none.
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