Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high
pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1025 am EDT Monday...
Little adjustment required to the near term forecast.
Deep west-SW flow will continue to maintain a dry air mass over
central NC this afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies and warm
temperatures. A near sfc north-northwest flow has advected a less
humid air mass into our region with sfc dewpoints at late morning in
the 50s. These pleasant dewpoints will drop a few more degrees this
afternoon as drier air aloft is mixed towards the surface. Afternoon
high temps solidly in the mid 80s.
Tonight, the approach of a minor upper disturbance will yield patchy
mid-high level cloudiness, primarily after midnight, and mainly west
of Highway 1. The presence of the dry sub cloud layer will prohibit
any rain from reaching the surface. Min temps mainly 60-65 degrees
with a few upper 50s in the northern Piedmont.
Short term /Tuesday and Tuesday night/...
as of 350 am EDT Monday...
Our coolest airmass will be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night as
the upper trof axis moves across the area, perhaps accompanied by a
few showers...in the mid morning to early afternoon west...and in
the afternoon to evening in the east. Highs will top out in the
upper 70s north to lower 80s south. With clouds departing early
tomorrow night, mins will radiate down into the mid and upper 50s.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 145 PM Monday...
A mid level trough will continue moving east on Wednesday with a
general west-to-east flow Thursday into early next week. At the
surface, high pressure will crest over the region Wednesday, then
settle offshore into early next week. Return flow around the high
will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels.
Scattered afternoon and evening convection will develop Saturday
through Monday as instability and low level moisture reach
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
as of 140 PM Monday...
VFR parameters expected across central NC through Tuesday. The
approach of a mid-upper level disturbance will result in patchy mid-
high level cloudiness later tonight through Tuesday. Enough lift may
exists to cause a few showers to develop late Tuesday morning
through Tuesday afternoon. However, occurrence at any one taf sites
appears minimal at this time, so will omit from forecast. Sfc winds
through Tuesday afternoon will be less than 8 kts. In addition,
ceilings will be at or above 6000 ft.
High pressure will settle in behind the exiting disturbance Tuesday
night into Wednesday, then linger overhead through Thursday night.
As this high exits offshore Friday, the return sly flow will advect
a moist unstable air mass into our region, setting the stage for
scattered afternoon-evening convection, and early morning low clouds
and fog. Thus, the potential for periods of MVFR/IFR parameters will
increase, beginning Friday morning and continuing into the weekend.