Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 am EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Synopsis...
a surface trough and associated weak areas of low pressure will
affect central NC through early next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 250 am Saturday...

The dew points quickly returned to the 70s overnight as the low
level flow became more southerly. There have been a few showers and
even isolated thunderstorms to our west and along the coast early
today. NC continues to be on the very southern edge of a stronger
belt of west-southwest mid level flow extending from Kentucky eastward across
Virginia. Another mid/upper level vort Max is forecast to track in the
stronger flow to our north this afternoon and evening. With a
surface trough in place through the Piedmont of Virginia and NC, scattered
convection is expected to develop this afternoon as strong
heating occurs in the very moist air mass in place over our
region.

The convection should fire in the mountains and move
eastward, with the highest pop across the northern sections closer
to the stronger flow aloft. Convection should also favor areas along
and east of the surface trough later this afternoon into the early
evening. Therefore, the highest pop (50) will be across the northern
and eastern zones with lowest pop in the southwest and far southern
Piedmont (20). Locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind
gusts to 40-50 mph should be common with the stronger storms. An
isolated storm may become severe, with localized damaging wind the
main threat (mainly from The Triad to the Triangle and areas
northward). Highs today 88-96 north to S, held down by the increased
clouds and convection north today. Dew points will be in the lower
to mid 70s, and heat indices 95-100. Fayetteville to Goldsboro
should see 100-103 heat indices, a bit below advisory criteria. Quantitative precipitation forecast
should range upward of 0.50 in the northeast with locally 1 inch
totals.

After the thunderstorms weaken with loss of heating this evening, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible (20 percent or less
for any one spot). Warm and humid conditions with partly cloudy
skies expected. Lows tonight in the 70s.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...
as of 245 am Saturday...

Most areas will have a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening again Sunday. Pop should be 50+
percent, especially aided by the surface trough, an approaching
mid/upper level disturbance rounding the base of the upper trough,
and strong heating in the very moist boundary layer. Highs should
reach the upper 80s to mid 90s before convection overturns the
boundary layer and cools the surface late. A few of the storms
should again be strong and an isolated damaging wind gust or two
can be expected during or just after peak heating.

Qfp should average 0.25 to 0.50 with local 1 inch totals expected.

&&

Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 1200 am Saturday...

Broad troughing aloft will prevail over the Carolinas and mid-
Atlantic early next week, transitioning to northwest flow aloft mid-week as
an upper level ridge re-strengthens over the lower MS River Valley
and deep south, followed by ridging aloft mid/late next week as the
aforementioned ridge builds east/NE over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic.
With the above in mind, expect near normal temperatures early next
week with temperatures rising above normal by mid/late week as the
aforementioned ridge builds over the region. With broad troughing
aloft, expect near or above-normal chances for convection early next
week, with chances somewhat more ambiguous in northwest flow aloft by mid-
week, falling below normal (dry perhaps) late-week as the ridge
builds over the region. With central NC situated on the southern
periphery of the westerlies and eventually a period of northwest flow
aloft, a potential for organized severe weather may exist early to
mid-week if small amplitude waves and/or upstream convection /mcvs/
progress into/across the region, particularly in vicinity of peak
heating. -Vincent

&&

Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 150 am Saturday...

24-hour taf period: generally VFR conditions through noon, then
there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening. Best chance will be from kgso to krdu to krwi.
A return to VFR conditions tonight and Sunday morning, except for
some early morning LIFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities between 09z and 12z
Sunday.

Looking ahead: there will be a better-than-usual chance for sub-VFR
conditions in showers/storms Sunday afternoon into Monday as
the upper trough settles overhead and a front stalls over central or
eastern NC.

MVFR or IFR fog is possible each morning as well.

&&
Rah watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Badgett
near term...Badgett
short term...Badgett
long term...Vincent
aviation...Badgett

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations