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FXUS62 KRAH 251743 RRA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1242 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

A strong cold front will push across the region this afternoon and 
move offshore by early evening. High pressure will build into the 
area tonight and Sunday. A warm front will approach from the south 
late Monday.


As of 1020 AM SATURDAY...

Deepening cyclone the Upper Great Lakes will lift north into Ontario 
and Quebec, with associated strong mid-upper trough over the OH and 
TN Valleys progress eastward into the Mid-Atlantic States today. 
Attendant cold front over the mtns this morning will push east 
across central NC this afternoon and will move offshore by the 

Temperatures will approach record territory once again, especially 
across the south-southeastern tier where it will remain mostly dry. 
Highs ranging from mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE. It will be breezy as 
well, with sustained winds of 15 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30kts.

With the better dynamics and deeper moisture moving off to the 
north, the broken line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving 
off the southern Appalachians of Va and NC has significantly weaken 
over the past several hours. However, expect a resurgence in 
convection over the central-eastern Piedmont and into the northern 
Coastal Plain during the early to mid afternoon hours owing to weak 
to moderate destabilization(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/Kg)in response to 
steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.50 
C/Km, left behind by the EML that pushed through the area 
overnight/earlier this morning. Impressive 50 to 60kts of 
unidirectional shear, coupled with inverted-V sounding profiles and 
DCape values of 1000 to 1200 J/Kg from the entrainment of dry air 
aloft will make it possible for an isolated severe storm to produce 
damaging straight line winds across the northern/northeastern tier, 
with even 40 to 50 mph winds possible in the heaviest shower. 

Convection should be exiting the area by 00z, strong post-frontal 
dry cold air advection Friday evening/night will result in abrupt 
clearing and seasonable overnight lows in the lower 30s NW to upper 


As of 407 AM SATURDAY... 

High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather Sunday and
Sunday night. Highs Sunday should reach the 55-62 range, with
lows in the 30s. Scattered frost is possible, mainly in rural
and low lying areas.


As of 350 AM Saturday...

A warming trend will commence on Monday as the surface high moves 
offshore. However, cloud cover will increase across the area as a 
deep southwesterly flow develops. While this will lead to a warming 
trend it will also spell a return to unsettle weather with lots of 
clouds and periods of showers/storms. The first such disturbance in 
the southwesterly flow aloft is expected to move across the area 
late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Expect we will see an area 
of showers and perhaps a few storms move across the area during this 
time. A general lull in precip is expected Tuesday afternoon into 
Wednesday, before a more significant s/w is expected to cross the 
area along with a strong cold front Wednesday night/early Thursday 
morning. High temps ahead of the front area expected to be in the 
60s and 70s, with possibly a few lower 80s across the southern and 
eastern half of the area on Wednesday. Lows will follow the same 
trend, generally in the upper 40s to 50s. 

Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high 
pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a 
enforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High 
temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in 
upper 50s to 60s, with lows by Friday morning generally in the 30s. 
High Friday are expected to be in the 50s to lower 60s.


As of 1242 PM Saturday...

24 Hour TAF Period: 

A cold front an associated broken band of showers and storms that is 
approaching the Triad at this time, will cross the area through 00z.
Weak to moderate buoyancy in place across central NC could allow in 
an uptick in convection as it moves through the area, with best
coverage expected across the northern terminals. A brief period of 
sub-VFR conditions could accompany the stronger convection with 
strong wind gust as high as 40 to 45 kts possible.  

SWLY winds of 15 to 20 kts with gusts of up 25 to 30 kts will be 
frequent ahead of the cold front, with slightly weaker post-frontal 
wind gusts from the NW into the early evening. Winds will decrease 
to around 7 to 13 mph range between 03 to 06z with VFR dominating
Sunday as cooler high pressure builds over the area. 

Outlook: The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, 
lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow 
brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as 
well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn.



Record highs for February 25:

Greensboro:      81 (1930)

Raleigh:         82 (1930)

Fayetteville:    85 (1930)






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