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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
311 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Current water vapor imagery indicating upper high across the
southern High Plains and the southern rockies, with weak west to
southwest flow aloft across the state at this time. Monsoonal
moisture plume remains entrenched across the region, however,
satellite blended total precip waters indicating best moisture
across the southeast plains (pwats 170 percent of normal) sliding
south into eastern New Mexico, as some slightly drier air (pwats 100-
125 percent of normal) is working into western Colorado at this
time. Regional radars indicating scattered to numerous showers and
storms over the higher terrain, with the best coverage over the
southern mountains at this time. Further east, MCV from last nights
convection still helping to keep a few storms across the far
southeast plains, with a more stable airmass in place across the
rest of the plains at this time.

Tonight...latest high res models continue to support storms across
the higher terrain through the evening, with most of the convection
diminishing with the setting of the sun, save for a few possible
storms across the southern mountains into early Friday morning.
Storms try and move east across the I-25 corridor, though look to
diminish as they encounter the more stable air, though latest hrrr
does indicate a few storms possibly moving across the southern I-25
corridor through the late afternoon and early evening. With the
ample moisture in the air, there could be some patchy stratus/fog
develop across the eastern plains overnight, though currently
thinking there will be enough high clouds moving across the area
overnight and did not include in the forecast at this time.

Friday...not much change in the current forecast, with quasi-
stationary upper high keeping weak west to southwest flow aloft
across the region. Best monsoonal moisture remains just south of the
area, though still enough moisture to support another round of
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms over and near the
higher terrain. Storms will be slow moving, with locally heavy
rainfall and the potential for flashing flooding over area burn
scars the main threat from storms. With slightly warmer conditions
expected, through will see a slightly better chance of storms across
the eastern plains in the afternoon.



Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Saturday through Monday...plenty of moisture will remain over
the region. Surface high pressure centered over the Midwest will
tend to keep upslope flow over the eastern plains and into the
eastern mountains. Models show dew points generally in the 50s
continuing into next week. In addition, the upper level ridge will
remain centered over or near New Mexico, keeping the monsoon
plume over the region. With all the available moisture, threat for
convection, with heavy rain possible, will continue into next
week. Subtle features, which are tough to forecast more than a day
in advance, will determine the favored locations for convection
and the threat for heavy rains. Could not improve on CR model
blends so only made very minor adjustments. Convection will be
likely over the mountains most afternoons and evenings, with high
scattered pops elsewhere. Temperatures will remain near or below
average with usplope flow on the plains and afternoon convection.

Tuesday through Thursday...upper ridge builds westward over the
Great Basin with northerly flow aloft developing. This will bring
in drier air aloft, which will tend to decrease chances for
convection. However, disturbances moving southward on the east
side of the ridge could enhance convection, especially over the
plains and eastern mountains. GFS is more bullish on convection
than the ec. Grids have decrease in pops starting Tuesday, but
they are not as dry as the ec would suggest. --Pgw--

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Generally VFR conditions expected at cos and pub over the next 24
hours, as the atmosphere remains stable from yesterday's rain. Still
could see a few storms try and move east across the Pikes Peak
region, though would expect storms to diminish as they move into the
more stable atmosphere. With ample moisture across the region, could
see some patchy stratus develop across the eastern plains, however,
currently thinking there will be too much high cloudiness to
indicate the mention in the tafs attm. Will see a slightly better
chance of storms moving across cos later tomorrow afternoon.

Als will continue to see chances of storms through the early
evening, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in locally heavy
rain. High clouds to prevail through the overnight, with another
chance of storms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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