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fxus65 kpih 262020 
afdpih

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
220 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Short term...tonight through Wednesday. Upper trough pushing over
forecast area. Moisture working northeast toward the region.
Favorable upper jet dynamics and instability in favor for
development of convection starting this afternoon, shifting east
ahead of surface cold front. Hrrr still showing gusts near severe
limits this evening as line of storms works northeast from south
of byi through the snake plain. Dcape values support stronger
convective gusts as well. Precipitable water values at or above 0.75 where
convection expected to develop/move so wetting rains likely out of
the storms. Initial shortwave shifts east through the night, and
models all still paint weak convection lingering across the region
past Sundown, mainly higher elevation areas. Have kept precip
going overnight. Second shortwave shifts across the region
Tuesday, and could see another round of strong storms particularly
in NE quadrant of fcst area. Breezier through the day as sfc
gradient tightens behind tonight's front. Upper trough axis slowly
sags se, with one more shortwave associated with base of trough
passing through on Wednesday. Yes, one more round of convection,
expected to be weaker, and mainly concentrated in areas along the
Wyoming border. Dmh

Long term...Wednesday night through Monday. Upper trough pushes
into the plains in the latter portions of the week, with northwest
flow over Idaho and dry conditions. Next Pacific trough slips inland
Saturday, and both GFS/European model (ecmwf) settling on increased chances for
convection across the area. Have nudged pop upward slightly for
Saturday. This trough is fairly progressive, so models project
another return to dry northwest flow Sunday and Monday. Dmh



&&

Aviation...thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southwest
to northeast across the area late this afternoon and tonight as an
upper-level trough and attendant cold front slide across the area.
Best thunderstorm chances through this evening appear to be at kbyi
and ksun...with lesser coverage expected near kpih...kida...and
kdij. Better chances will eventually shift east to kdij late tonight
and tomorrow. Strong gusty winds will be possible with the
storms...along with brief MVFR or lower conditions. Outside of any
showers/storms...VFR conditions are anticipated. West/southwest
winds will increase Tuesday morning behind the front with strongest
winds expected at kpih/kida/kbyi.

Kb



&&

Fire weather...showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
this afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level trough and cold
front...and make their way southwest to northeast across the area
late this afternoon through tonight. Some of the thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening may produce strong gusty winds and little
rainfall. The central mountains and south Central Highlands are
favored to see the greater thunderstorm coverage through this
evening. Better chances will become focused over the central
mountains and upper snake Highlands late tonight...with the upper
snake Highlands seeing the higher chances on Tuesday. Behind the
cold front passage tonight...west/southwest winds will increase on
Tuesday with the strongest winds expected in the snake plain and
eastern Magic Valley where gusts to around 35 mph will be common.
Temperatures on Tuesday will cool 10-15 degrees from today in wake
of the front...resulting in higher relative humidity values (minimum relative humidity values 20
percent or higher). Thus no critical fire weather conditions are
anticipated despite the gusty winds. For the remainder of the
week...near normal temperatures can be expected along with mainly
dry conditions aside from some lingering showers and storms in the
upper snake Highlands on Wednesday.

Kb



&&

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