Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kpih 260250 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
850 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Update...convection slow to dissipate this evening, with showers
and an occasional lightning strike in the northeast quarter of the
forecast area. Have made a few adjustments to pop/wx overnight to
account for satellite and radar trends. Generally still expect
precipitation to gradually dissipate overnight in the northeast
corner, with next batch sliding into western edges of forecast
area by morning. Winds likely to remain somewhat elevated
overnight with surface low centered over the Yellowstone region.


Previous discussion... /issued 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

Short term...Tuesday night through Friday. A few showers linger
in the eastern Highlands this afternoon and this evening
associated with wrap around moisture from the low pressure
disturbance in Wyoming moving off to the east. The models differ
with respect to the the disturbance approaching from the Pacific
on Wednesday. There is still a little evidence of splitting flow
over eastern Oregon and Idaho, the GFS favors this and diverts a
little extra energy from the Wednesday disturbance across Oregon
and northern NV/UT. Satellite seems to favor this and some
ensemble members do, but not all models. Decided to go with the
GFS ensemble idea. That effectively diverts some moisture further
south as well, and results in less total rain fall for this area,
but still fairly widespread showers during the day. The Flood
Warning for the Portneuf River was updated to keep the river at
minor flooding levels. Expect a surface cold front to cross this
area late Wednesday afternoon with potential for isolated
thunderstorms. There will be some pretty strong cold temperature
advection behind it for rather breezy winds in the eastern Magic
Valley and lower snake plain Wednesday night into Thursday. A Wind
Advisory may be needed. Northwest flow aloft prevails Thursday
with a chance of showers mainly over the mountains, then a little
stronger embedded wave Thursday night. Afternoon high temperatures
remain on the chilly side through Friday. The cooler temperatures
and a fair amount of cloud cover will retard snow melt from the
mountains. Receiver station

Long term...Friday night through Tuesday. The weather heading into
the weekend and early next week should be drying out a bit. We will
be under northwest flow as a ridge builds to our west. We will see
some off and on showers especially in the central mountains and
eastern Highlands, as storms primarily drop just to our east. The
ridge is a bit stronger in the ECMWF, which would dry US out even a
bit more. We went with something in between that and the GFS. Keyes

Aviation...conditions are slowly improving this afternoon, with
some lingering showers that could affect kida, kpih and kdij.
Intermittent MVFR/IFR weather is expected due to lower ceilings and
perhaps low visibility in rain and snow. More widespread rain and
snow arrives tomorrow, hitting ksun and kbyi around 13-14z, kpih and
kida 17-18z and kdij by mid afternoon. Expect MVFR/IFR weather with
this wave of precipitation.

Note: we continue to advertise amend not schedule for kdij due to no data
coming from the observation site there. National Weather Service is not responsible for
maintaining the sensor there, so we are not sure when that will be
resolved. Keyes


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations