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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
150 PM MDT Thursday Oct 20 2016

Short term...tonight through Friday night. A flat upper ridge was
noted over the region this afternoon as a weak pac disturbance was
moving into western Canada. As this wave passes east this afternoon and
tonight, light showers are anticipated over the mountains north of
Challis and Stanley otherwise southeast Idaho should remain dry under
passing high clouds. A second disturbance passes over the ridge
Friday night into Saturday for a slight risk of showers once again
along the Montana border north of Challis. Daytime temps should
remain unseasonably warm Friday into Saturday. Huston

Long term...Saturday through next Thursday. The models continue to
show extreme differences for early next week. The trend for at least
Saturday through Monday is toward drier conditions as the
progression of the storm has slowed down a bit. We still have a
slight chance/low chance of showers for Monday at this point. At
this point, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) get way off track. The European model (ecmwf) continues
with a much wetter forecast as it actually brings a stronger system
across the west. The GFS on the other is swinging now toward a much
drier forecast especially by Thursday. It has less coverage with
just mainly mountain showers for Tuesday, with only the Central
Mountain with showers on Wednesday. Since there continues to be no
true consensus at this point, we didn't make any huge changes to the
forecast other than to tweak and match up better with surrounding
offices. Even if we end up with quite a bit more rain and mountain
snow, it certainly won't be like the last 2 big events where a
couple of inches of rain fell in some places. Keyes

Aviation...other than some high and mid clouds passing overhead,
quiet weather remains in place. Winds won't get too strong and we
are not expecting any taf sites to be impacted by patchy fog or
stratus. In other words, VFR will be the norm. Keyes

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none.


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