Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kpih 250847
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
247 am MDT sun Jun 25 2017
Short term...today and tonight. Warm and dry conditions continue
as high pressure strengthens. There should be some afternoon
clouds developing mainly over the central mountains, but not
expecting any thunderstorms today.
Long term...Monday through Sunday. Tomorrow will be the warmest
day of the period and possibly for some the warmest day of 2017.
The ridge begins pushing east and that allows moisture to our
south and west to move into eastern Idaho. We're expecting showers
and storms to develop initially over the central mountains south
toward City of Rocks. Confidence isn't high but enough moisture is
there that stronger cells could produce some decent downpours. We
are more confident on the risk of gusty winds. Some of the
information points toward the potential of gusts over 40mph with a
few potential producing gusts 50-60mph. As the storm and initial
front shift eastward tomorrow night, so will the precipitation.
This front also Ushers in cooler air that will stick around for a
bit. For Tuesday, the main threat for showers and storms remains
across the central mountains and eastern Highlands. There will
also be the potential for development across the snake plain north
of a Arco-Blackfoot line as a backdoor front/convergence boundary
shifts south later in the day. Winds pick up with some gusty
winds especially across the snake plain and ridgetops. At the
moment, we are looking at any headlines for that impact. As a low
drops south-southeast Wednesday toward the northern plains from
Canada, more showers and storms are forecast but more confined to
the eastern Highlands. The end of the next week looks dry as high
pressure makes a brief return. Next weekend may be a bit stormy as
another storm sweeps inland. The models and ensembles are all
over the place with how deep this system might be, but we are
including isolated showers and storms over the central mountains.
That's in line with previous forecasts and surrounding offices.
Temperatures bottom out midweek with highs in the 70s/low 80s for
the valleys 50s/60s for the backcountry. We should a very slow
climb up the thermometer heading into next weekend. Keyes
Aviation...the upper ridge continues to dominate the pac northwest today.
VFR conditions will prevail into Monday. Hedges
Fire weather...as upper ridging continues to build over the western
US...warmer temperatures and low afternoon humidity readings will
prevail through Monday. As the ridge moves east...some mid level
moisture flows into Idaho resulting in thunderstorms late Monday
afternoon. Thunderstorms become more numerous Monday evening as an
upper trof and cold front move through the pac northwest. Limited moisture
means some of these thunderstorms may be dry with gusty winds.
Cooler temperatures and windy conditions can be expected on Tuesday.