Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kphi 191630
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
1230 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
Hurricane Jose will move northward well offshore through tonight.
Jose will continue to weaken and move slowly northeastward near
southeastern New England through the remainder of the week. High
pressure will become established to our north through the mid and
late week time period as well. This area of high pressure will
remain over the area into early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the pops were trimmed across the western zones as these areas
may end up being dry through the afternoon. A more pronounced
band of showers rotating onshore now from coastal Monmouth
County south-southwestward and therefore increased the pops into
the categorical range. We still cannot rule out some showers
developing later this afternoon west of I-95, however these
areas have been pretty much dry thus far. Adjusted the winds
upward earlier with peak gusts near 45 mph right along the
coast. More clearing has taken place near and especially west of
I-95 thus far, therefore needed to raise temperatures/high
temperatures some. Additional clouds are rotating west-
southwestward now. The rainfall amounts were lowered earlier
based on guidance from wpc.
We are getting some reports of roadway flooding and even some
dune damage along portions of the New Jersey and Delaware coasts.
Dangerous waves, about 8-10 feet, continues to crash onto the
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/...
the center of Jose is forecast to start turning northeastward
tonight and it should begin to lose it influence on our region
The showers are expected to move eastward and out of our region
by about midnight. Clouds should linger over most of New
Jersey. However, some clearing is anticipated for parts of
eastern Pennsylvania and the upper Delmarva.
The wind is anticipated to back to the north and northwest with
speeds diminishing to 15 to 20 miles per hour near the coast. Speeds are
forecast to remain in the 5 to 10 miles per hour range well inland.
Minimum temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 60s.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
Wednesday through friday:
Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from
our region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our
north and west with high pressure becoming established over the
region. BUFKIT analysis for both the NAM and GFS yields north to
northwest winds on the backside of Jose from 10-15 mph on
Wednesday with higher gusts to 20 mph. By Thursday and Friday
these winds will gradually ease as the high pressure system
builds in. If the wind is light enough Thursday morning, a
marginal situation for patchy fog right around sunrise may
Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite
warm for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80's for a
good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60's.
Typical met/mav guidance has be slow to catch up the anomalous
Friday night through monday:
Ensemble guidance continues to show US about one-third of all
members from the GFS, European model (ecmwf) and Canadian suites show Jose making
a loop back to the southwest around the weekend timeframe. Any
southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid-level
ridging developing to our west and north throughout the
remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go
with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located
east enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our
Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region
through early next weekend with a strong - pna pattern of almost
four Standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of
anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble
guidance will likely be slow to pick up on the degree of warmth
this weekend and early next week. Temperatures were raised a few
degrees most days as well. High temperatures may make a run at
90 early next week with heat index values into the 90's.
If Jose were to trend back to the southwest which is looking
more unlikely, it would be much weaker. More clouds along with
somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted would
occur as well.
Aviation /16z Tuesday through Saturday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
This afternoon...MVFR to VFR ceilings, mostly in the range of
2000-5000 feet. Some MVFR visibility due to showers will affect
mainly kmiv and kacy at times. Northeast to north winds around
15 knots with gusts 20-30 knots, with the strongest winds mainly at
kmiv and kacy.
Tonight...conditions should favor VFR as showers retreat to our
north and east. North to northwest winds should diminish to 10-15
knots (a bit lower at krdg and kabe).
Wednesday through Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds
10- 15 knots decreasing on Thursday to under 10 knots. Patchy
fog if winds go light enough Thursday morning for krdg, kabe and
Friday through saturday: VFR. Winds under 10 knots.
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all our ocean zones.
The winds are increasing and there is some opportunity for near
sustained tropical storm force winds later today and early this
evening from south to north especially farther offshore.
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Delaware Bay with
gusts to about 30 knots. Seas on our ocean waters will be around
15 feet into tonight.
seas will be slow to come down through the remainder of the
week. Potential is present for seas to fall at or below five
feet by Thursday but remain at that level through Saturday.
Winds will decrease gradually through Wednesday-Wednesday night
from the north and northwest falling below 25 knots on
Hurricane Jose continues to push powerful swells into the
coasts of Delaware and New Jersey through tonight. As a result,
there is a high risk of dangerous rip currents. Also, a high
surf advisory is in effect as 8-10 foot waves crash onto the
we have issued a coastal Flood Warning for our coastal counties
and for the counties along Delaware Bay. It appears as though
we will experience minor flooding with this morning's high tide
and moderate flooding with this evening's high tide as the surge
builds near 2 feet above the astronomical tide.
Also, we have a coastal flood advisory in place for New Castle
County and Salem County for tonight's high tide.
ksmq observations are not being sent out. There is a comms
problem and technicians are on site today to troubleshoot.
New Jersey...coastal Flood Warning until 1 am EDT Wednesday for njz012>014-
High surf advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for njz014-
Coastal flood advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 am EDT
Wednesday for njz016.
Delaware...coastal Flood Warning until 1 am EDT Wednesday for dez002>004.
High surf advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for dez004.
Coastal flood advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 am EDT
Wednesday for dez001.
Marine...Tropical Storm Warning for anz450>455.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Wednesday for anz430-431.