Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
408 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
an area of low pressure will move north of our area tonight, before
a second low develops near New York City, then lifts to the
northeast tonight into Friday. A warm front will lift partially
through the area tonight, before a cold front sweeps across the area
overnight. High pressure briefly affects the area Friday night, then
builds south of the area over the weekend. Another low pressure
system is forecast to slide well to our north Saturday and combine
with the old low pressure across the Canadian Maritimes, pulling a
cold front across the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure
is then expected for Monday. A cold front may affect the area around
the middle of the week as an area of low pressure moves into eastern
Canada once again.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
a strong upper trof with associated sfc low pres and frontal
systems continue to move east towards our forecast area this
afternoon. Areas of rain and showers ahead of this system have
been moving across the region, and some lightning has been noted
over delmava and south New Jersey. Temperatures over the higher elevatins
in the Poconos have been slow to rise above freezing and the
Freezing Rain Advisory has been extended twice. There appears to
have been some ice in the advisory area, mainly on above-ground
For tonight, the surfacelow is forecast to continue northeast
through West New York this evening and then re-develop overnight near the
southern New England coast. The associated warm front may be able to
push somewhat farther north into southeast PA and central New Jersey before
cold front moves through around midnight. In the meantime bands of
showers will continue to cross the area this evening with a isolated
thunderstorm possible mainly south of phl. Fairly rapid clearing is
expected after midnight behind the cold front as drier descending
air pushes in from the west.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
for Friday, mostly clear and sunny conditions are expected, but
with a gusty northwest wind behind the departin low pres over New
England. The air mass behind the cold front is somewhat cooler but
sunshine will compensate some. There will be less of a north-south
temperature contrast with somewhat warmer afternoon Max temps
north and slightly cooler south.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
high pressure briefly affects the area Friday night, which should
keep dry weather in the forecast.
Saturday, the high pushes well to our south across the southeastern
states, while an area of low pressure passes well to our north
across the southern tier of Canada Saturday into Saturday night.
This low is forecast to combine with the old low pressure system
across the Canadian Maritimes. Winds on Saturday could be gusty with
gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at times.
A cold front is forecast to pass across the area late Saturday night
into Sunday. There will be a slight chance of showers during this
period as the front sweeps across the area, but most of the
precipitation may dry out as it approaches. Sunday night is expected
to be precipitation free as drier air moves in behind the front.
Winds on Sunday could continue to be gusty with gusts reaching 20
to 30 mph at times.
High pressure once again is expected to move into the area later on
Monday and Monday night, bringing dry weather to the area.
Another low pressure system is expected to move well north across
eastern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially bringing a cold
front across our area around the middle of the week. If the front
gets stretched out too much, and all the forcing passes well to our
north, our forecast could remain dry.
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Mostly MVFR conditions are noted at our taf sites this afternoon,
mainly due to lower ceilings. Generally MVFR conditions are expected
to continue through this evening, although there will likely be
periods of IFR conds as some heavier showers move through late this
afternoon this evening. Winds from phl and vicinity will tend to
veer to the southeast and S and may be gusty at times in the warm sector
ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds at Abe/ridge should remain
light from the east-southeast. The cold front should move through the area
roughly around midnight follow by conds improving quickly to VFR and
somewhat gust west winds. Friday will be VFR but wigh northwest winds gusting
up to 25 kt.
Friday night...generally VFR.
Saturday...generally VFR, some MVFR ceilings possible for northern
areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots.
Saturday night...generally VFR.
Sunday...generally VFR, some MVFR ceilings possible, especially for
northern areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots.
Sunday night-Monday night...generally VFR.
Tuesday...generally VFR, some MVFR ceilings possible, especially for
As of 400 PM, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all New Jersey
and Delaware coast waters as well as Delaware Bay. Southeast winds will increase
and veer to the south over the Bay and Delaware coast as a warm front
pushes north. Seas will also build up to 5 feet. Visibility will be
poor in areas of rain and showers this evening, with possibly an
A cold front will cross the waters shortly after midnight, which
will shift winds to the west and end the precipitation. Friday will
have fair weather but with gusty northwest winds and seas 5 to 6 feet
offshore in a short-period swell.
Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to continue
into the evening Friday. Conditions should drop below advisory
Saturday-Saturday night...winds and seas may approach Small Craft
Advisory levels during the day into the evening Saturday.
Sunday...conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Sunday night...conditions may increase to Small Craft Advisory
levels behind a cold frontal passage
Monday-Tuesday...conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory
PA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for paz054-
New Jersey...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for njz001.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for anz430-431.