Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kphi 171015
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
615 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
high pressure over the Midwest will build east and will move
off the mid-Atlantic coast later this week. A cold front
gradually approaches early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure builds across the area today, providing quiet
weather across the region as mostly sunny skies prevail. Winds
will shift from the north this morning, to west through the day
as the center of the high shifts slightly southward. Highs will
be close to or slightly below normal across the area.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/...
high pressure remains in control of the weather tonight across
the region. Skies remain mostly clear and winds will become
light and variable or calm for most places. This will allow for
temperatures to cool once again to near or slightly below normal
for most places. We maintain the frost advisory for portions of
The Pine Barrens of southern New Jersey as temperatures there
may cool enough for some areas of frost to develop. Portions of
northern New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania may stay just
warm enough for only patchy frost to develop in the isolated
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
a prolonged period of dry weather is on tap for long term as
high pressure builds east and remains in control of the weather.
Temperatures will gradually warm up, and will end up being
above normal for the end of the week and into the weekend.
High pressure will be centered south of the Delmarva Peninsula
on Wednesday. Return flow sets up behind the high, allowing high
temperatures to warm up by about 10 degrees compared to
Tuesday, and highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The high moves offshore on Thursday, and then another area of
high pressure will become entrenched over the mid-Atlantic and
southeast U.S. For the weekend. Highs will gradually rise into
the low to mid 70s, and overnight lows will be in the 40s to low
High pressure moves offshore on Monday. A cold front approaches
late in the day.
Aviation /10z Tuesday through Saturday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. Winds will shift
from northerly this morning, to west-southwest this afternoon
into this evening, before becoming light and variable or calm
this evening and overnight.
Wednesday through Saturday...VFR.
we extended the Small Craft Advisory through 11 am this morning
as winds remain around 25 to 30 knots and seas are around 4-6
feet in some areas. As high pressure continues to build across
the area, winds will lighten and seas will subside and the
advisory will be able to be come down later this morning.
Conditions the rest of today and tonight will remain below
Wednesday through Saturday...sub-sca conditions expected on the
waters through this time.
PA...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for paz054-055-
New Jersey...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for njz001-007>010.
Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for njz021-022-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for anz431-