Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kphi 241413 
afdphi

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
913 am EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Synopsis...
a cold front just north of our region today, will lift
northward as a warm front tonight. This will be followed by a
strong cold frontal passage on Saturday evening. High pressure
will traverse the middle Atlantic Sunday into Monday. A warm
front will setup near our region late Monday into Tuesday,
followed by another cold frontal passage Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
few changes with the latest update. May see some increasing
clouds later today as the low continues to approach the region,
but should keep a mostly sunny sky today. Maximum temperatures
are forecast to be close to 30 degrees above normal for the
second day in a row. Based on the current projections records
are expected at Philadelphia, Georgetown and Mount Pocono.

A southwest to south wind is forecast to increase around 10 miles per hour
today with gusts of 15 to 20 miles per hour.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Saturday/...
the surface flow is forecast to become from the south and
southeast for tonight. The trajectory is expected to draw low
clouds and fog off the ocean during the course of the night.
Meanwhile, rain showers ahead of the cold front approaching from
the west may move into parts of eastern Pennsylvania and
northern New Jersey late tonight.

Conditions will remain quite mild tonight with minimum
temperatures anticipated to favor the lower and middle 50s in
much of eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware
and New Jersey.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
active pattern in the Saturday thru Thursday time frame. Storm Prediction Center
continues to outlook our entire area for a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms Saturday. Daily record high temperatures on
Saturday remain in jeopardy. Temperatures cool to seasonal
levels on Sunday, with above average temperatures returning for
the Monday thru Thursday time period, and additional chances for
precipitation.

In terms of confidence, there is still uncertainty with regard
to convective outcomes on Saturday. Overall, sunday's forecast
is high confidence. Moving into next week, there remains
considerable uncertainty with regard to timing and coverage of
precipitation, as well as high temperatures.

Saturday and Sunday...a strong cold front is progged to move
through the region Saturday evening. We continue to expect a
squall/convective line to move through much of the area. The
primary threat is damaging wind gusts, and we continue this
wording in the hazardous weather outlook (hwo). Some heavier
downpours are also likely, but rainfall amounts are expected to
be less than one inch. High temperatures on Saturday are
forecast to fall shy of daily records. We continue to expect a
return to fair weather on Sunday, along with near normal
temperatures, and gusty northwest winds.

Looking ahead to Monday thru thursday: several shortwaves will
interact with a warm front that sets up near our region late
Monday into Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage
Wednesday into Thursday. Timing and coverage of precip continues
to remain uncertain, so the forecast reflects a general slight
chance of showers during this time frame.

&&

Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are anticipated for today into this evening with
cirrus and scattered cumulus overhead.

The computer guidance is suggesting a round of low clouds and
fog for late tonight. The solution seems reasonable as the
surface flow should be a little east of south and more off the
ocean that it is currently.

A light southwest to south wind should increase around 8 to 10
knots for late this morning and this afternoon. The wind
direction is forecast to back toward the south and southeast for
this evening and tonight at speeds generally less than 10
knots.

Outlook..

Saturday...there is the potential for MVFR/IFR at times with
showers and potential thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Winds
out of the south on Saturday could gust up to around 25 knots.

Saturday night and Sunday...becoming VFR Saturday night with
gusty west-northwest winds anticipated into Sunday, 25 to 30
knots at times.

Sunday night thru Tuesday...predominantly VFR.

&&

Marine...
a southerly flow will continue on the coastal waters of
Delaware and New Jersey for today and tonight. Sustained wind
speeds should remain less than 15 knots with no gusts in excess
of 20 knots. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be around 3
to 4 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay will likely be 1 to 3 feet.

Mild air will continue to advect over the chilly water. Dew
point readings will increase further above the water
temperatures resulting in the development of fog this afternoon.
The fog should become even more widespread for this evening and
overnight.

Outlook...

Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast Friday night thru Monday, with
period of gales possible on Sunday. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are
forecast Tuesday.

&&

Climate...
**many records yesterday contribute to a record warm Feb and a
top 10 warmest winter in the period of record for Mount Holly
forecast area**

Records were set yesterday 2/23/17, at Ged 75, mpo 63, ridge 73,
Abe 72 and records were equaled at Acy 72, ilg 73

Moving forward, here are high temperature records for Friday
and Saturday.

Location Friday 2/24 Saturday 2/25

Acy 75-1985 77-1930

Phl 74-1985 79-1930

Ilg 78-1985 78-1930

Abe 76-1985 74-1930

Ttn 74-1985 76-1930

Ged 72-1961 76-1975

Ridge 77-1985 77-1930

Mpo 60-1984 70-1930



The following are the monthly and seasonal expectations.

It is virtually certain that these values will be at or below
reality and that our forecast area is experiencing a record warm
February and a top 10 warmest winter.

Records date back to the late 19th century. Details below.

February:

Phl 43.9 #1 normal 35.7 record 42.2-1925 por 1874

Abe 38.9 #1 normal 30.7 record 38.6-1998 por 1922

Acy 42.9 #1 normal 35.3 record 41.6-1890 por 1874

Ilg 43.1 #1 normal 35.1 record 42.3-1903 por 1895

Note for abe: there is a pretty good chance Abe will end up
warmer and possibly very close to their monthly temp record.



Winter (djf)

Phl 40.3 #7 and solid. It wont slip.

Abe 35.8 #5 and solid. It wont slip.

Acy 39.8 #9 and may rise

Ilg 39.4 #5 tie

Past two years of monthly average temperatures through February
2017, a summary of above normal months listed below:

For abe: 23 consecutive months of above normal temps!

For phl: 22 of the past 23 months have been above normal.

For acy: 19 of the past 23 months have been above normal.

For ilg: 17 of the past 23 months have been above normal.

(Jan Feb March 2015 was the last time we had significant and
persistent below normal monthly temps.)



Snow:

Atlantic City should end up tied for 5th least snowiest
February on record 0.3"

&&

Phi watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New Jersey...none.
Delaware...none.
Maryland...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...franck
near term...iovino/Johnson
short term...iovino

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations