Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
427 PM EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will
persist at times through the weekend. Drier and less humid weather
is expected for much of the next work week as high pressure builds
over the region.


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
the start of what will be a very active 24 hour period of weather
is underway. The primary threats over the area will be severe
thunderstorms (locally damaging winds, frequent lightning, an
isolated tornado or two) and flash flooding. These threats are
covered with weather watches: 1) a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect through midnight for approximately I-78 southward. 2) a
Flash Flood Watch (ffa) is in effect through noon Friday. After
collaboration with surrounding offices, the flash Flood Advisory was expanded
northward to include the entire County Warning Area.

The majority of the forecast area should see rainfall amounts of
1-2" with isolated amounts of 3-4"+. In this setup, the greatest
flash flood threat will exist along and south of the weak frontal
boundary that is expected to not move much tonight from its
current location near the I-95 corridor. Heavy rainfall rates of
2"+ per hour would be favored across the southern half of the County Warning Area
where inflow of moist unstable air resides. Pwats are currently
above +2 South Dakota (2-2.2) and are forecast to increase further to near
record observed values based on precipitable water climatology of nearby raobs.
Note, that there is still considerable disagreement between models
regarding where the axis of heaviest rainfall. Based on the above
mesoanalysis and model reliability in these types of excessive
rainfall events, we are favoring a southern solution for where the
heaviest rainfall occurs, which is better supported by the hi-res
cam guidance.

Updated hourly pops to try and time the multiple rounds of precip.
After the diurnally driven convection through early evening,
another round of heavy rain looks to move in late tonight as a
wave of low pressure tracks northeastward along the stalled front.
Heavy rainfall with this second round may be more widespread.
Also, backed flow in the low levels ahead of the low may provide
a source of low- level helicity. Given very low local heights, a
weak tornado or two may occur toward early morning near the front
as long as instability remains near surface based.


Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
precipitable water values of 2.2 to 2.4 inches will overspread
our forecast area from the south for tonight. Conditions are
expected to remain unstable, especially across our southern
counties. Also, surface low pressure approaching from the west
will result in the development of a favorable low level wind
profile for organized convection tonight. The surface wind should
begin to favor the east to south quadrant late tonight, especially
on the coastal plain, while winds around 800 hpa will be from the

The very high precipitable water values should result in heavy
rainfall in any organized convection. As a result, the Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect for southeastern Pennsylvania, central and
southern New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland.

The cloud cover and high humidity will keep temperatures from
falling below the 70s for tonight except in the Poconos and far
northern New Jersey.


Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...

* scattered showers/T-storms W/locally heavy rainfall this weekend
* drier/less humid weather for much of the next work week


Friday night...

Dry weather expected Friday night with subsidence behind departing
shortwave. May see some patchy fog develop overnight with wet ground
and lingering low level moisture.

Saturday and Sunday...

A couple of additional shortwaves will move across our region this
weekend along with a frontal boundary in the vicinity. Timing is
uncertain this far out, but more scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected at times this weekend. Pwats will still be between 1.5
and 2 inches, so the threat will exist for locally heavy rainfall.
Clouds and the threat of precipitation should hold high temps mainly
in the 80s both days.

Monday through Thursday...

High pressure will build over the region, bringing US drier and less
humid weather. There still will at least be a low risk for a few
showers early in the work week, but either way dry weather should
dominate through Thursday. High temps will mainly be in the 80s.


Aviation /21z Thursday through Tuesday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Flying conditions will continue to deteriorate through tonight as
thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain will periodically
impact all taf sites, but especially kphl, kpne, kttn, kmiv, kacy
through early Friday morning. Added vrb15g30kt winds to these taf
sites to account for potential for gusty winds in and near
thunderstorms. Confidence is low for the timing of convection at
any particular taf site, but high that storms will be in the
region through early Friday morning.

Showers and storms will expand in coverage tonight and early
Friday morning. This will result in ceilings dropping to MVFR at
most sites around or after 04z.

Southeast winds will back to the east late tonight generally 10
knots or less, except in and around thunderstorms, but shift to
the northwest and increase in speeds, gusting at 10-20 kts after
11z Friday.

Conditions gradually improve by late morning/early afternoon
Friday with precipitation ending, and ceilings lifting

Sat through sun...shra/tsra will lower cigs/vsbys at times
otherwise VFR expected. Moderate confidence.

Mon...mainly VFR. Moderate confidence.


a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of the waters. There
is a potential for storms through this evening to produce locally
strong winds. An isolated waterspout is also possible through
early Friday morning.

S to southeast winds 10-15 kt will become light tonight. Seas will
generally be around 1 ft. S-SW in the morning will increase to
10-20 kt and become northwest in the afternoon and then north late in the day
across our northern coastal waters as a cold front passes thru.
Expect seas to respond by building to 2 ft in the morning and
possibly 3 to 4 ft during the afternoon in our coastal waters.

Outlook...Friday night through Tuesday...

There is a low risk for marginal small craft seas Friday night but
for now kept them just below 5 feet. Otherwise, winds/seas should
generally remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the
period. Biggest concern for mariners will be the risk for
thunderstorms this weekend. Drier weather should arrive early next

Rip currents... there is a low risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents for today due to the relatively light wind and tranquil
seas. The probably risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on Friday should primarilly be low but it may approach
moderate along the New Jersey coast late in the day as alongshore north-NE
winds increase and surf builds to about 3 ft.


Phi watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for paz054-055-
New Jersey...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for njz001-007>010-
Delaware...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for dez001>004.
Maryland...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for mdz008-012-015-


near term...Klein
short term...Klein
long term...Frank

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations