Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kphi 210151
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
951 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
Tropical Storm Jose will be meandering well offshore through this
weekend as it gradually weakens. High pressure centered to our north
and west will slowly build closer to our area later this week and
into the weekend. A weakening Hurricane Maria should parallel the
East Coast offshore during early next week, while a cold front
approaches from the west during Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
930 pm: estf: adjusted clouds/temps slightly overnight and
otherwise deleted the nnj cfa and expired the marginal occurrence
along md's Eastern Shore. Verification along the S New Jersey and Delaware
coasts will be marginal this evening, generally within 0.1 ft of
the advy threshold. Added patchy fog toward dawn where the ups
tool gives it a chance.
High risk rip current statement cancelled. May need to reissue
on Thursday pending new information around 4 or 5 am EDT.
Our region will remain positioned on the western fringe of
Jose's counterclockwise circulation and to the east of a weak
surface ridge along the Appalachians.
Fair skies overnight...any cloud cover, mainly E New Jersey.
Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s area wide.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
large-scale pattern for Thursday very similar to today. Tropical
Storm Jose is expected to stall several hundred miles off the New Jersey
coast while high pressure ridges southward down appalachian spine.
Northerly winds should be a few mph lower than today while
temperatures are expected to trend upward by a degree or two owing
to less cloud cover tomorrow. High temperatures in the mid 80s will
be around 10 degrees above normal.
North wind may gust 15-20 miles per hour during the afternoon.
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
summary...a warm pattern through this time frame with a cold front
not scheduled to arrive until during Wednesday. Tropical Storm Jose
meanders well offshore for awhile, then monitoring Hurricane Maria
as it should weaken northward as it parallels the East Coast
offshore the first half of next week.
Synoptic overview...a strong ridge is forecast to extend from the
lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to the Great Lakes and toward
northern New England through Friday, which then shifts eastward some
over the weekend. This ridge should gradually weaken over the
weekend into next week as a trough aloft shifts from the western
states into the plains and Midwest. The placement of this ridge and
another one near Bermuda will result in very weak steering flow,
therefore Tropical Storm Jose is forecast to meander around well
east of our coast. Meanwhile, a weakness in the aforementioned
ridges as well as the placement of Jose will have an affect on where
Hurricane Maria GOES as it turns northward. We used a blend of model
guidance and continuity for Thursday night through Friday night,
then used mostly the 12z wpc guidance.
For Thursday night and Friday...an upper-level ridge is forecast to
build some more just to our west and north, which results in strung
out surface high pressure. This surface high gradually builds south
and eastward, however its progress will be slowed due to Tropical
Storm Jose meandering offshore. Jose is forecast to be centered well
east of our coast, however its circulation will maintain a northerly
wind for our area. Jose currently has a large cloud canopy
associated with it therefore as it lingers, at least the eastern
parts of our area could see more cloudiness (mainly the high level
variety). Despite the ridge aloft not all that far to our and west
Friday, some western influence of Jose could keep our temperatures a
little cooler. Overall though, most places are expected to get into
the 80s Friday afternoon. The western extent of Jose's moisture
should continue to remain well east of our area.
For Saturday and Sunday...a rather stuck weather pattern is in place
with a ridge that slowly builds a bit to the east. Meanwhile, Jose
should still be well east of our coast although it should be
spinning down. There could be more clouds at times over the weekend
especially closer to the coast given the proximity to the western
part of Jose's circulation. Depending on the steering currents, Jose
could make a turn more toward our coast late Sunday. It appears
though that any showers will continue to remain east of our region,
therefore carried a dry forecast through the weekend.
For Monday through Wednesday...this time frame could end up being
more challenging as we watch two tropical systems. The first is Jose
which is forecast to become Post tropical as it spins down off the
northern mid Atlantic coast. Some guidance wants to push its
remnants into our area Monday, particularly as the system weakens
quite a bit vertically allowing the low-level feature to be steered
more westward. We are not certain this will happen at this time as
our attention also turns southward to Hurricane Maria. For now,
included some slight chance pops for much of the area Monday into
The track of Maria looks to be partially determined by where Jose
GOES and if it weakens faster and if Jose is able to help produce a
weakness in the ridging (one to the north and west and another near
bermuda). While the consensus overall is to keep Maria offshore of
the East Coast, especially as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday,
influence from an incoming upper-level trough begins to occur. The
timing of this trough will also be important. The presence of
Hurricane Maria (which should weaken with a northward extent) looks
to be a little close for Comfort, therefore monitor the forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center and our office for the latest.
Pending no showers from dwindling Jose early next week, warm weather
should prevail. A cold front does not look to approach until later
Wednesday which will also potentially help to keep Maria off the
coast. We followed wpc closely and did not go even warmer given more
uncertainty with the details especially tied to the tropical activity.
Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Overnight...VFR clear. Light north to northwest wind. Vsby
restriction possible toward dawn at krdg/kabe/kmiv in some fog?
Thursday...VFR variably thin cirrus with few or sct clouds
developing in the afternoon near 5000 ft. North wind may gust 15
knot in the afternoon.
Thursday night and Friday...VFR. Northerly winds 10 knots or
less during the day, then mostly light and variable at night.
Saturday through Monday...VFR overall. Winds favoring between
northwest to northeast generally 10 knots or less.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas continues for our
coastal Atlantic waters through Friday. Seas, which are
currently in the 6 ft range at our offshore buoys this evening,
may not subside very much tonight or even Thursday. Still some
large seas to our east.
Thursday night and Friday...northerly winds should remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria, however seas will remain
elevated as Tropical Storm Jose meanders well offshore.
Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through
the day Friday.
Saturday through Monday...a continued northerly wind through this
time frame, however it is anticipated to be below advisory criteria.
Seas may subside some as Jose weakens, however building swells from
Hurricane Maria should arrive with time.
high risk cancelled for now but may need to reissue Thursday
morning. Would like to give the seas an opportunity to subside 1
or 2 feet by 5am Thursday. Right now our internal guidance
offers a moderate risk on Thursday but we may yet need to raise
that to a high risk.
Friday and Saturday a moderate or high risk.
Sunday through Wednesday are outlooked high risk days with the
greatest risk Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Leftover Jose
swells combined with newly arriving southeast swells from
Maria. Thats as far as we're outlooking.
So despite the still above normal temperatures and above normal
water temperatures... I dont think its wise to test your Luck.
Follow the advice of local officials and in most areas... I
wouldnt risk swimming in the still rough surf. Rescue crews...if
called...might arrive too late at all the unguarded areas.
tidal anomalies remain steady between 1.25 above astronomical
prediction. Held onto the coastal flood advisory for coastal S
New Jersey and Delaware (including the oceanfront, back bays and Delaware bay)
but its quite not as widespread as expected.
There is a potential for additional minor coastal flooding
for the Friday mid morning high tide cycle (etss/sit sources)
but confidence in reaching advisory threshold is low at this
We do not anticipate any tidal flooding with today or tonight's high
tide along the Delaware River upstream from the Commodore Barry
bridge area or on the upper Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay.
New Jersey...coastal flood advisory until 1 am EDT Thursday for njz021>025.
Coastal flood advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for njz016.
Delaware...coastal flood advisory until 1 am EDT Thursday for dez002>004.
Coastal flood advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for dez001.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Friday
near term...drag 951
short term...Klein 951