Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kpbz 290032 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
832 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

high pressure will bring dry weather for Wednesday before
another low pressure system brings rain into the region
beginning late Thursday.


Near term /through Wednesday/...
cold front is through the area and showers have been pushed off
to the east. A drier air mass will filter in tonight on
northwest flow. However, clouds are expected to linger through
the night and into tomorrow morning as moisture will remain
trapped underneath a subsidence inversion. Upped the cloud cover
grids a bit more from previous, and have removed mention of
precipitation. Only minor tweaks to overnight temperatures based
on a near term guidance blend. Still expect clouds to break
during the morning once mixing gets going, leading to a mostly
sunny Wednesday afternoon with fairly seasonable temperatures.


Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/...
computer models are still struggling somewhat with the arrival
time for precipitation on Thursday. Attempted to take a middle
of the Road approach, keeping conditions dry Thursday morning,
introducing the chance of showers Thursday afternoon, and
bringing in widespread showers Thursday night. Increased pops to
categorical Friday with all models in good agreement showing
rain across much of the eastern United States. After seasonal
temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday, both highs/lows
should be about five degrees warmer over the next 24 hours.


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as low pressure moves offshore the East Coast Friday night,
showers should come to an end Saturday morning. High pressure
will bring quiet weather through the second half of the weekend
before another system brings the chance for rain Monday into
Tuesday. Seasonal temperatures are expected for the period.


Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/...
low level moisture behind exiting low pressure is expected to
continue the MVFR cigs tonight. A lowering temperature inversion
could cause cigs to lower to IFR for a period, mainly from pit
north. Building high pressure and dry air mixing should return VFR
to the area by late morning/early afternoon Wednesday.

restrictions are likely again from late Thursday through
Saturday as another broad low affects the upper Ohio Valley.


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations