Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 191812
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
212 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
high pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the
Near term /through tonight/...
clear and warm this evening as high pressure maintains control.
Several models Show Low-level moisture associated with a weak
front, dropping down from the southern Great Lakes late this
evening, eventually pooling near the higher elevations. This
could bring additional cloud cover overnight to these areas, but
the forecast will keep it scattered for now.
Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
high pressure will re-build through the weekend, keeping it warm
and dry. Despite an increase in cirrus and the ridge axis
shifting east Saturday, increasing southwesterly flow will
allow temperatures to climb further on Sunday. Highs Sunday will
be about 15 degrees above average.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
high pressure ridge shifts east Sunday night into Monday as the
broad western Continental U.S. Trough trudges east. Models differ slightly
in the evolution and timing of the trough, with operational
GFS/ec developing a cut off low near the southern MS valley
Monday. The ec deepens this low faster, ultimately slowing down
precipitation to our region. Despite these timing differences, a
pattern change will occur early next week, bringing rain and
eventually much cooler temperatures.
All operational models and ensembles develop an anomalously
deep trough over the eastern Continental U.S. Through next week, keeping
cool and unsettled weather through the remainder of the period.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
a VFR forecast was maintained through the taf period. Any fog
should remain tight to the valleys once again and should not
impact most terminals, with the possible exception of hlg. Also,
models are hinting at some stratocumulus development along the
ridges late tonight. Included a scattered layer at lbe and mgw,
but not expecting a ceiling restriction at this time. Southwest
wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots this afternoon will fade to under
10 knots around sunset.
restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.