Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
627 am EDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016
warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low
pressure on Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
whatever is left of the weak boundary over West Virginia will
continue to wobble under the zonal flow aloft. Each small
juxtaposition is caused by the passage of upper level energy in
the aforementioned flow. With daytime heating, and its resultant
atmospheric destabilization, spotty convection could fire over the
southern edge of my forecast area. The good news for most of US is
the real juicy air will remain shunted to the south, and allow for
warm but comfortable conditions.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
pops will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on
Thursday. For now, highest probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast resides over the
southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low
should progress. Still seeing model differences in the path of
surface wave and the upper level support which will enhance it
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
System will slowly exit Friday decreasing pop and cloud coverage.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
a series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow
trough over the eastern Continental U.S. Is forecast to support periodic rain
chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging
should return dry weather by the middle of next week.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
cig restrictions at mgw will improve to VFR mid-morning as mixing
increase with VFR conditions the remainder of the day across the
region. There is a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm
south of kpit but potential is too low for inclusion in the tafs
at this point and recent rap soundings have trended more stable
over the past several hours.
Outlook /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
low pressure may return potential restrictions late Thursday and
Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction
chances through the weekend.