Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 240808
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
408 am EDT sun Jun 24 2018
another low pressure trough will generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Dry weather is then anticipated through
Tuesday, with warming temperatures.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the next shortwave trough will swing through the upper Ohio
Valley today. Models are showing scattered showers and a few
storms developing along the leading edge of the upper level
energy in correlation with a weak surface front that pushes
through this afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s will provide surface instability and also the risk for brief
heavy downpours. The front will push south of the forecast area
this evening, bringing and end to convection.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
Monday will be dry with seasonal temperatures as an upper level
ridge moves over the region. Dry with seasonal temperatures
again on Tuesday.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
the next disturbance crosses the region Wednesday, increasing
shower/storm chances. Ridging will then build over the northeast
and result in an impressive warming trend in temperatures into
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
sct shra/local restrictions should taper off overnight as a
weak disturbance exits. Otherwise, residual llvl moisture is
expected to support MVFR cigs in the predawn of sun mainly north of
pit. VFR is expected elsewhere overnight, with a period of MVFR
cigs expected after sunrise with the low level moisture in
Sct-nmrs showers and isolated tstms, with brief restrictions,
are expected again late this morning through the aftn with the
approach and passage of a weak cold front.
the next chc for general restrictions is expected Tue night
through Wed night with low pressure.