Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kpbz 240531 
afdpbz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1231 am EST Thu Jan 24 2019

Synopsis...
mild conditions and rain will continue through the night. A
passing cold front will change rain to snow showers and drop
temperature to seasonal readings again.

&&

Near term /through today/...
changes for the midngt update were cosmetic as rain continues in
advn of a cold front moving toward the area.

Come Thursday, snowfall accumulations around an inch will be
observed for most areas as cold advection changes rain to snow
showers, with higher amounts along the eastern ridges and north
of I-80.

&&

Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
Arctic air will return after a second reinforcing frontal
passage Thursday night into Friday bringing the return of below
averagel temperatures and additional light snow showers. Gusty
winds combined with well below normal temperatures will result
in wind chills around zero on average across the region on
Friday.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
deep longwave troughing will dominate into next
week...with several shortwaves maintaining unsettled
conditions. Some temperature moderation will be possible
later in the weekend but this slight warm up will be followed
by a deep system beginning to impact the region by the end of
the period...which potentially could usher in the coldest
temperatures yet for this winter.

&&

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
widespread IFR restrictions can be expected through the morning
as a cdfnt generates rain, and eventually snow showers. That
front will veer wind to the northwest and increase gusts to 15 to 25
kt.

Overall forecast confidence is good.

Outlook...
periodic restrictions are likely through the weekend as cold
upper troughing develops over the region with a series of embedded
crossing disturbances.

&&

Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...Flood Watch until 6 am EST early this morning for ohz039>041-
048>050.
PA...Flood Watch until 6 am EST early this morning for paz007>009-
013>016-020-022-023.
WV...Flood Watch until 6 am EST early this morning for wvz001.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations