Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kpbz 280930 
afdpbz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
530 am EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure should maintain dry weather today. An approaching
front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the area
late this week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
minor changes to hourly sky and temps based on observations and
near term models. Previous...dry weather and mostly sunny skies
are expected today as high pressure slides across the region.
High temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below the
seasonal average.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
some increase in cloud cover is expected tonight in warm
advection ahead of an approaching shortwave as the high exits
the mid Atlantic coast. This wave is progged to track across srn
Ontario and northwest PA Thu, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing mainly near and north of I 80. Shear is progged to
increase, though unfavorable lapse rates and instability should
limit any significant severe weather potential.

Another, weaker shortwave is progged to take a similar track
early Friday, maintaining precip chances. Shortwave ridging
behind the second wave should result in limited shower and
thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon despite building
instability. Warm mid levels should also help limit convection.
Maintained low chc pops Friday night with another weak shortwave
ahead of an approaching midwestern upper trough. A return to
above average temperatures is expected by Thursday.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
the midwestern upper trough is progged to advance east Saturday
driving a cold front across the area. Dry weather is expected to
return sun/Mon as surface ridging builds underneath the upper
trough. Another trough is progged to advance east from the Midwest
and plains regions Tue, though with uncertainty in timing and
location limited pops to the chance category for now on the 4th
of July.

&&

Aviation /10z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR through the forecast period.

Outlook...
restriction chances will increase during the latter half of the
week with the approach and passage of a cold front.

&&

Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations