Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 220139
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
939 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018
dry weather is then expected through Friday morning under
building high pressure.
Near term /through Thursday/...
snow has all but ended for the local forecast area as the parent
low pulls well to our east. Residual flurries will taper down
over our southeast by midnight. Temperatures will drop into the
lower 20s in most locations.
Skies will be mostly cloudy at sunrise, but clearing will occur
through the day. Despite the breaking cloud cover, highs will
only rise into the 30s and lower 40s.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
high pressure building over the Great Lakes will keep conditions
dry into the weekend. Low pressure will then track south of the
region, clipping southern portions of the forecast area with
precipitation Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will
likely allow precip to start as snow, change over to rain during
the day, then finish as snow. Temperatures will remain well
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure across the
region again. Low pressure will track from the Central Plains on
Tuesday to Michigan on Wednesday. Precipitation will spread east
in advance of the low. Temperatures should be warm enough during
this time period that locations south and west of Pittsburgh
should generally receive rain, while locations north and east
will have snow mix in at night.
Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/...
spotty and brief MVFR/IFR conditions will continue through 03z
or so as the last of the snow tapers off. At this time, expecting
VFR conditions for the remainder of the taf period as a drier
air mass moves in. There is a possibility that MVFR ceilings
could linger and/or redevelop late tonight and continue through
sunrise, but think chances are too low for inclusion right now.
Will monitor and amend as needed. Northwest winds will diminish
to under 10 knots tonight, but may gust to around 20 knots once
again towards midday on Thursday.
MVFR restrictions remain possible Friday with a crossing
shortwave, followed by general VFR through the weekend.