Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS61 KPBZ 251740
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1240 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will fall through the day as wind increases behind
a cold front. Temperatures will be back to near seasonal 
averages by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the cold front well east of the area, temperatures are
beginning their descent back towards the seasonal range. Just
behind the front temperatures dropped about 5-10 degrees and
then have stabilized a bit as the sun appears in the dry slot. Further
upstream, a solid patch of clouds and scattered showers can be 
found over central Ohio to Indiana. These will shift eastward 
this evening as the upper-level low approaches. Expecting 
shower chances to increase through the evening, per latest hi- 
res model guidance. 

Scattered rain showers will changeover to snow showers as 
temperatures continue to descend through the evening. In 
general, less than an inch is expected across northern counties 
and into the mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected 
elsewhere. Building high pressure will end precipitation chances
overnight with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80
the last holdouts.

Winds and associated gusts are increasing, in the enhanced cold
advection. Wind in the highest elevations could approach
Advisory criteria towards dusk. This will bear further
monitoring.

Sunday will feature more docile weather as high pressure at the
surface builds in. This will slowly erode cloud cover, leaving
much sunnier conditions. Temperatures Sunday will moderate to
near normal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minimal change made in the extended with broad southwesterly 
flow aloft progged through midweek. A weak disturbance may 
result in scattered light showers Monday afternoon, but better 
chances will follow midweek and again on Friday after a brief 
break with deeper moisture and multiple shortwaves cross the 
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front and associated showers pushing east of the area,
and strong westerly flow at the surface is taking hold. Winds
will commonly gust 20-30kts this evening. Expecting little in
the way of restrictions this afternoon as the increased mixing
in the near-surface has raised ceilings on incoming stratocu to
around 4kft.

Scattered rain showers will transition to snow showers this
evening, but coverage and intensity will be limited. MVFR CIGs
are possible late tonight as the surface flow begins to weaken
and ceilings lower. This will especially be true for FKL/DUJ
where downlake moisture may be more prevalent.

.OUTLOOK...
Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled
weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations