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fxus61 kpbz 251153 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
753 am EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

well above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
A few isolated showers are possible today but more widespread
precipitation is expected later Sunday afternoon and evening.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cloud cover and ongoing warm advection supported a very warm
night with temperatures 25 to 30 degrees above the averages.
Morning hourly trends were tweaked toward the much warmer NAM
and high res models in conjunction with current observations.

Otherwise, shortwave ridging on the Van of a cutoff plains low
suppresses will suppress widespread precip for most of the
region. The exception may be the I 80 corridor where the
encroachment of a front in conjunction with a northern stream
shortwave may support some isolated, to scattered showers today.

With the upper Ohio firmly entrenched under the ridge/warm sector,
warm high-temperatures can again be expected with readings
about 20 degrees above the averages forecast, with only minor
moderation projected along the I 80 counties as the
aforementioned front sags toward/across that area.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
as the cutoff low over the plains digs eastward this weekend,
shortwave ridging will suppress widespread rain and maintain
warmth for the immediate area. Moist flow and that systems
occluded front will degrade that inhibition on Sunday and pops
will be on the increase, albeit with questionable timing given
model discrepancy in handling the cutoff low.

For now, have continued the ongoing categorical pops, but have
adjusted timing and the mention of thunder given instability
projections. Renewed shortwave ridging in the wake of that
weakening system, and in advance of another midwestern shortwave
in timed to provide a break in precip for Monday.


Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
zonal and split flow is forecast to initially maintain above
average temperature for the remainder of the week, although a
midweek front is expected to drop them closer to the averages.

The next, best chance for precip is expected with that front
and with another, albeit filling cutoff low emerging from the
plains by the weekend. Tweaked superblend was used in long-term
forecast construction.


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are expected today. Winds will veer over the
course of the day as a front slowly transitions south over the
region, however, VFR levels should be maintained.

widespread restrictions are likely on Sunday with crossing low
pressure, and again with a Monday night cold front.


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...

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