Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 282048
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
448 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017
high pressure will maintain dry weather tonight. An approaching
front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the area
late this week.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
no changes needed for the near term forecast. High pressure
departing the eastern Seaboard will allow for southwest flow,
with a warm advection pattern continuing. High clouds will
dominate overnight, with deeper moisture holding off until
Thursday. Low temperatures will be closer to climatology than
the previous couple of nights.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
cloud coverage will increase Thursday morning in warm advection
ahead of an approaching shortwave progged to track north of the
forecast area. Overall, models have trended farther north with
this feature and continue to show marginal instability. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase mainly near and north of I
80 with locations to the south having a better chance at
Friday will be similar but with greater total thunderstorm
coverage as surface dewpoints climb into the high 60s and
surface-based instability increases.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
the midwestern upper trough is progged to advance east Saturday
driving a cold front across the area. Dry weather is expected to
return sun/Mon as surface ridging builds underneath the upper
trough. Another trough is progged to advance east from the Midwest
and plains regions Tue, though with uncertainty in timing and
location limited pops to the chance category for now on the 4th
Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR through the forecast period. Surface flow will remain out
of the southwest at 10kts or less, until Thursday when mixing
increases and gusts near 20kts are expected.
restriction chances will increase during the latter half of the
week with the approach and passage of a cold front.