Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 221635
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1135 am EST Mon Jan 22 2018
unseasonably warm conditions are expected until the passage of a
cold front tonight.
Near term /through tonight/...
bulk of showers have moved out of the region this morning, with
a break anticipated through early afternoon before moisture
returns with a shortwave ahead of the advancing cold front.
Mainly minor adjustments were needed based on the latest
observations and trends though some slowing of the actual front
per the latest NAM/hrrr/rap combo does not bring in likely pops
Today will be a warm day with temperature about 30 degrees
above the averages given the upper Ohio region is firmly within
the warm sector of a deepening plains low. Shallow mixing
should not tap the warmth aloft, so records will not be
threatened despite the late January warmth.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
the plains low is still projected to dig across the Great Lakes
by early Tuesday with Monday night cold frontal passage for the
upper Ohio. Categorical pops were maintained, but system
progression, a lack of instability, and mid level dry slot
encroachment should limit rainfall amounts to a half inch or
Seasonable temperature in the wake of the front is expected to
change rain showers to snow on Tuesday with upper support via
The Crossing mid level trough. Progression and a relatively
warm boundary layer should limit accumulation potential before
snow shower chances taper off with building high pressure on
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
building high pressure in advance of another low emerging over
the plains is likely to dry and warm conditions before rain
chances return for next weekend.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
pockets of stratus and fog remain this morning, but will be
diminishing through about 15z. The warm sector will then keep
area ports VFR through the afternoon/evening with some
clearing of the mid-level clouds. Condition deterioration can
again be expected later this evening as that lows cold front
sweeps over the area.
restriction potential will continue until high pressure builds