Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
425 am EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

a series of crossing disturbances will keep rain in the forecast
into early next week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
models now showing showers, and possibly a few storms, reaching
the area a bit faster as the surface low speed has increased just
a bit. Have increased pops faster, particularly over the south and
increased cloud cover as well. A series of upper level impulses
will move across the south today, with the strongest reaching my
southwestern zones as afternoon approaches. The wave of energy
will be accompanied by the surface wave, which reaches southern
Ohio by early afternoon, and then slides eastward near mgw by the
evening. Highest pops and quantitative precipitation forecast will be located over the southern
half of the area. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures lower
then the past few days.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
models continue to struggle with the placement and amount of
the heaviest rainfall tonight. Some of the Ops models appear to
have convective feedback problems this evening and overnight as
the surface low moves to the east and the trailing upper level
trough swings through. It still looks that the best chance for
heavier rainfall will be confined to the locations near the Mason-
Dixon line this evening and possibly into early Friday morning.
Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question
due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the
low and aforementioned trough.

The upper level system will exit the forecasting area Friday
morning, decreasing pops northwest to southeast across the region.

Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and
Saturday, keeping in shower and thunderstorm chances through the


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
a series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the
eastern Continental U.S. Will support periodic rain chances and seasonal
temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure
looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified superblend was used for much of
the extended period.


Aviation /09z Thursday through Monday/...
rain will overspread the area today as frontal boundary currently
along the PA/Maryland border shifts north slightly early today before a
mid-level shortwave and accompanying surface low tracks across
southeastern portions of the forecast area tonight. All terminals
will see showers, with taf locations south of Pittsburgh likely
seeing the most rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Based off of
model soundings restrictions look limited to MVFR during
precipitation with the first feature and tonight mgw and lbe
likely seeing IFR cig restrictions as this is where the bulk of
the moisture will be.

Outlook /Thursday night through Monday/...
broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction
potential through Monday.


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations