Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 250539
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
139 am EDT Tue Jul 25 2017
dry conditions and near-normal temperatures can be expected
until showers and thunderstorms return Thursday through Friday
morning. Dry conditions will then resume and persist through
Near term /through today/...
overnight stratus north of Interstate 70 will mitigate falling
temperatures and fog formation overnight. South of I-70
clearing may result in some valley fog as winds relax toward
morning. Clouds will clear during the day under building high
pressure and subsidence with mostly sunny skies across the
region by mid-afternoon.
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
ridging will continue to build through midweek with a drying
boundary layer and overall subsidence supporting a dry,
seasonable forecast through Wednesday night.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
models show decent continuity in the extended with an upper
level trough and associated front crossing the forecast area
Thursday through Friday morning. Showers and storms along the
boundary are likely.
Overall model consensus shows troughing east of the forecast
area by Friday evening...and with drier, more stable air moving
in behind....a dry and sunny weekend is most probable at this
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
ceilings will fall to low MVFR or even IFR during the overnight
period as an encroaching cooler air mass supports a stratus
deck. Southern terminals like mgw and zzv should see the least
impact and may remain VFR. Patchy valley fog/mist is also a
possibility, especially where the winds can decouple.
Stratus should erode by midday across the region under high
pressure, with VFR and light winds ruling the rest of the
VFR is expected to prevail through mid-week as high pressure
builds maintains over the region. Moisture will return Thu
ahead of a sewd- moving trough.