Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
241 PM EDT sun Oct 23 2016
a crossing cold front will return shower chances to the area
tonight, especially north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and
cool weather returns for the first half of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
a cold front is progged to quickly advance out of the Midwest,
crossing the region overnight. The best moisture and upper
support is progged north of I 80, where brief likely probability of precipitation were
maintained. With limited moisture available, only isolated to
scattered showers are expected further south, with areas in
eastern Ohio remaining dry. A crossing low level jet should also
result in some gusty winds overnight in the ridges. Lows should
stay above seasonal levels tonight.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
cold advection in northwest flow, and proximity to an upper trough
across the NE conus, should keep stratocu across the region
Monday. Limited lake enhancement could also result in isolated
showers especially early, though lowering inversion heights
should limit this potential. Building surface high pressure
return dry weather to the area through Wednesday, though a gradual
increase in clouds is expected by mid week in warm advection.
Below seasonal average temperatures are expected through the
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
a trough advancing out of the Midwest should return increasing
shower chances to the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A
western Continental U.S. Trough is progged to advance rapidly toward the area
by the weekend keeping unsettled weather and cooler than seasonal
average temperatures in the forecast. Followed close to the
superblend guidance, with some blend of wpc guidance, to smooth
out some of the more significant operational model differences
especially toward the weekend.
Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
patchy MVFR around kduj will depart early afternoon, otherwise
general VFR through late evening. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots and
gusty this afternoon as pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching cold. A low level jet near 50 kts will bring a period
of low level wind shear to most ports before daybreak. With and just behind front
around sunrise MVFR cigs expected, with brief showers possible at
northern ports. Improvement to VFR by midday Monday.
Outlook /Monday night through Friday/...
the next chance for significant restrictions will be with low
pressure approaching Thursday.