Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
549 PM EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016
a series of disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through
Near term /through Friday/...
an early eve update was issued to adjust pops and weather type as
widespread rain is diminishing with the passing of the supporting
shortwave. Precip probs will remain in the near term forecast
though in the form of isolated to scattered convection given
abundant moisture, mesoscale boundaries, and weak trailing
disturbances in shallow southwest flow aloft.
The near term temperature spread will remain restricted with 60
dewpoints spread over the region; hence, no real change was made
to the temperature prognosis.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and
Saturday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances through the
period. By Sunday trough is forecast to sharpen enough to push
deep moisture east of the ridges by evening, with diminishing
shower chances late day. Continued humid with near seasonal
daytime temperatures, with lows somewhat above normal.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
appears to be enough low level moisture for low chance pops in the
ridges Monday, otherwsie a weak bubble of surface high pressure
looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal boundary may get close enough for
chance pops on Thursday. A modified superblend was used for the
Aviation /22z Thursday through Tuesday/...
approaching low pressure should maintain MVFR to local IFR
conditions in showers mainly south of pit through the evening.
Showers should taper off with exiting shortwave support overnight,
though widespread MVFR/patchy IFR fog is expected with low level
moisture in place. A return to VFR is expected Friday morning as
the fog mixes out, but broad upper troughing should maintain
shower and thunderstorm chances.
Outlook /Friday night through Tuesday/...
broad upper troughing should maintain periodic shower and
thunderstorm restriction potential through Monday.