Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 301512
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1112 am EDT Thu Mar 30 2017
wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain showers to the upper Ohio
Valley late today through Friday.
Near term /through tonight/...
elevated instability evident on 12z soundings will be tapped as
a weak wave crosses the region and initiates convection through
early afternoon. Most locations will see dry conditions from
mid-afternoon until early evening as the warm front begins to
lift over the forecast area and coverage increases
substantially. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible through
the night as well as model soundings maintain marginal elevated
instability. Rain will be moderate at times overnight with
favorable dynamics...especially north and east of a line running
roughly from Zanesville to DuBois.
Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
rain showers will continue early Friday as the upper low moves
overhead. It appears that a dry slot will bring to an end the
widespread precipitation by midday, but scattered showers and/or
drizzle will likely continue with low level moisture trapped
under building subsidence inversion through Fri night.
Surface ridge will start to build overhead on Saturday, but
northwest flow and cold advection will likely keep skies cloudy
for a good part of the day. High pressure will support dry
conditions on Sunday.
Temperatures will remain just slightly above averages on Friday
and return to seasonal values for the weekend.
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
active weather pattern continues starting with the approach of
the next low pressure system sometime Monday. With plenty of
uncertainty apparent in the new model runs, especially in
regard to low placement evolution, opted to use a model blend.
Temperatures will generally stay close to or slightly above
average for early April.
Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/...
showers this morning may impact northern ports of fkl/duj
briefly before the warm front lifts just north of the area
through this afternoon. Otherwise, general VFR is expected for
much of today despite possible scattered showers. Tonight, a
gradual deterioration can be expected as deep low pressure
brings increased moisture and develops a tightening pressure
gradient over area terminals. Showers, general MVFR, and low
level wind shear can all be expected after dark tonight.
Outlook... restrictions are likely through Saturday as broad
low pressure moves slowly across the region.