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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1137 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance


Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

As surface high pressure migrates from Minnesota eastward across
the Great Lakes tonight-tmrw, its northerlys and northeasterlys
advect cooler temps in for overnight lows in the low end 40s and
tmrw highs in the upper 60s-around 70.

At the same time, height falls occurring in the High Plains will
lead to cyclogenesis, as a cold front develops and approaches late
tmrw night-early Wednesday. The trof of low pressure will be
sharpened as a jet core/Max rounds its base Wed night, thrusting
the cold front thru with passage. Pops along/ahead of the front
enter the forecast in our north/west Wed PM, and expand their
coverage forecast area wide Wed night. It is noted, however, that the 12z
model runs really seem to break the main pcpn areas off to our
north and to our south, so a trend down in pops may be warranted
in the near future if this trend continues in subsequent model

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Very low confidence in precip chance Friday night. Otherwise medium
confidence on other parameters.

Models are in flux with the Friday night system. They do agree on a
frontal passage but the timing is off by 12 hours. The GFS brings
the front through Friday night/early Saturday as high pressure
drifts to the east. On the back side of the high we slowly return to
a southerly flow of moisture...however if it actually did happen
that rapidly I have doubts as to advecting enough moisture into the
region for rain at all. The European model (ecmwf) is much slower with a much later
frontal passage nearly 24 hours later and mainly dry over the region. The
Canadian is in between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with timing. However the
GFS and the European model (ecmwf) do agree on mainly dry passage while the Canadian
is wet. There is no surface instability to speak of but there is a
little bit of elevated instability aloft with k index values well
into the 30s. Thus kept a slgt chc or isold chc of thunder
mentioned. In summary would not be suprised if we end up with a dry
forecast for the end of the week...especially south of the Ohio
River and west of the Mississippi River.

As for temps, as you would expect the European model (ecmwf) is warmer well into
the weekend with the slower frontal passage. For now will lean
toward the faster GFS/Canadian solution...but changes could be
coming in subsequent runs.


issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes region will produce a dry east to
northeast wind flow through the taf period. Winds will be light at
the surface, however winds just off the surface will be 20 to 25
knots during the nighttime hours. Some high cirrus clouds will
arrive on Tuesday, mainly scattered to broken.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...



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