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fxus63 kpah 271853 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
153 PM CDT Sat may 27 2017

issued at 152 PM CDT Sat may 27 2017

Rapid adjustments made to reflect current activity across the weather forecast office
pah forecast area. Greatest concern at the moment will be the
convective complex moving from east central Missouri, then along
and remnant outflow/frontal boundaries south of the Interstate 64
corridor...then again along the common borders of southeast
Missouri, northeast Arkansas, west Kentucky and Tennessee. |

Update issued at 1133 am CDT Sat may 27 2017

Convection is developing along outflow boundaries and existing
warm frontal boundary over southern Missouri and parts of southern
Illinois and the pennyrile of west Kentucky. Some local concern
that some of these storms along the boundary may go severe
severe before the main bowing line (developing derecho?) Reaches
the weather forecast office pah County Warning Area later this afternoon and this evening. Waiting to
see what Storm Prediction Center might do with the MDT risk area in their midday
update. Also added Flash Flood Watch for Carter/Ripley counties
from 1 PM today through 7 am Sunday.(See Hydro section).


Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 134 am CDT Sat may 27 2017

New swody1 outlooks moderate risk for much of forecast area this PM/evening,
with all svr wx hazards possible. Am storms to our west are
modeled to affect western ptns forecast area later this morning, and may lay
out a boundary and also blow off debris clouds that could stall
development after daybreak. However, differential heating should
mix the atmos up enough to allow super charge to take place, with
high cape environ and steep mid level lapse rates revealed by
model soundings. At some point during the PM hours, cap should
break and convection become numerous to widespread, with
associated moderate risk of svr extending from late PM into/thru
the evening hours. Svr chances begin to diminish overnight as
large scale instability is lost the farther east storms push away
from source boundary/energy.

Primary cold front does not make actual passage until Sunday
evening, so until then, we'll be continuing pops along/ahead of
the boundary, and this includes a continued slight risk of severe
again for mainly Sunday afternoon/early evening.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 134 am CDT Sat may 27 2017

The extended period continues to be troublesome with models flip
flopping the best chances for rain. Still dealing with another
frontal boundary passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night. The GFS has
been the most consistent with the timing of this feature but not
as much on quantitative precipitation forecast. Still, believe that precip chances need to be
included for that time frame given the consistency of this signal
and the consistency of the GFS ensemble precip means. At this time
our confidence does not warrant anything more than slight

The European model (ecmwf) was never that excited about tuesday's rain prospects and
still isn't. Instead, the 12z European model (ecmwf) brings a front down into the
area on Wednesday through Thursday. That is the exact same time that
the GFS brings in a reinforcing sfc high pressure system that dries
US out. However, the 00z European model (ecmwf) is back to looking like the GFS with
the drier weather on Wednesday with the incoming sfc high. The early
part of the extended forecast is going to be hinged on exactly what
this large upper level low over the upper Great Lakes region/eastern
Canada does and the timing and strength of impulses rotating around
it. For now, leaning toward the more consistent GFS for guidance.

Given the above discussion, pops will be low Tuesday through
Thursday given uncertainty's in the model signals. There has been
a stronger signal for more wet weather as we head into the latter
half of the week. However, the upper level pattern is not being
consistently resoled by the models very well at all. Yesterdays
runs indicated more of a southwesterly flow pattern setting up and
now the upper flow stays more west northwesterly through Friday.
We will continue to have pops for late week, but work will need to
be done on fine tuning these chances as models grasp a better
handle on things.


issued at 152 PM CDT Sat may 27 2017

Current 18z Saturday taf issuance will be a challenge with mutiple
boundaries focusing VFR to IFR changing conditions. Base forecast
includes thunderstorms in each taf location. Main concern within
the next six ho9urs will be the kevv, kcgi, and kpah taf locations
for lowered visibility.


issued at 1133 am CDT Sat may 27 2017

Wpc recently upgraded parts of southern Missouri in a moderate
risk of excessive rainfall through today and tonight. Given the
antecedent rainfall this morning, combined with the expected
position of the frontal boundary and outflows today, felt it was
prudent to add Carter and Ripley counties to the Flash Flood Watch
later this afternoon and tonight.

Depending on the propagation of the convection along the boundary
and the southern end of the expected wind-damaging MCS, may need
to extend the Flash Flood Watch to Wayne and Butler counties as
well. Will monitor the progression of the storms this afternoon.

Minimum rainfall of 1-1.25 inches is likely...with higher amounts
possible. Given the flashy nature of runoff and the terrain, as
well as the potential for higher public presence outdoors this
weekend, decided to go ahead with a Flash Flood Watch for Carter
and Ripley counties from 1 PM today through 7 am Sunday.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for moz107-108.


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