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000 
FXUS63 KPAH 221151
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Updated Aviation Discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A band of heavy showers with some embedded thunderstorms has entered 
our western-most counties as of 2 AM. Some bowing segments within 
the line are currently noted, so can't rule out a strong storm in
our far west counties, capable of transferring some of the strong
winds aloft to the surface (LLJ starting to ramp up with winds of
55-60+ kts expected at 850mb). Any surface instability resides 
down in Arkansas, where some stronger convection is currently 
noted within this band moving eastward. Overall what little
elevated instability there is wanes heading into the morning 
hours. The timing of this convection through the area continues on
track, with clearing from west to east from 12z to 18z. 

A nice dry slot moves in during the late morning and afternoon 
hours, with breezy conditions and warm temperatures. Nudged highs up 
a bit closer to MOS guidance, given that we no longer have any snow 
cover and we will have good mixing during the day.

Upper low currently over Kansas will push east into the Great Lakes 
region by Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to indicate a 
secondary band of convection developing closer to the upper low 
later this afternoon, but it should largely stay to our north. May 
see some wrap around showers on the backside of the low spread into 
our far northern counties during the evening/overnight hours. 
Otherwise dry conditions for much of the area after this initial 
band of convection moves through this morning.

Should still have a decent pressure gradient on Tuesday to result in 
a healthy wind, although winds won't be near as strong as today. 
Also expecting a good amount of cloud cover on the backside of the 
system. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler, back closer to 
normal for this time of year in the 40s during the day on Tuesday 
and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Thursday into Thursday night continues to look dry with unseasonably 
warm temperatures as south winds ahead of our next weather system 
pump warm air north.  GFS and ECMWF remain in decent general 
agreement on the approach and passage of a cold front Friday night 
into Saturday, though GFS is now about 6 hours faster than the 
ECMWF.  GFS brings the front into western potions of the PAH 
forecast area by 12z Saturday, and the ECMWF holds off until closer 
to 18z. The latest ECMWF run is very similar to its 00z run 
yesterday, and prefer to lean toward its timing due to the 
consistency.  The overall solution indicates showers will spread 
across the PAH forecast area Friday night, with numerous and more 
substantial showers expected late Friday night and through the day 
Saturday, tapering off from west to east Saturday night.  Looking at 
several instability parameters, do not see a reason to include 
thunder at this time.

High pressure will build in behind the front for Sunday, leading to 
dry conditions.  Cooler air will filter into our region, and we 
should see near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 551 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to move east
across the area, with gusty winds extending out ahead of it. Some
IFR/MVFR vsby reductions noted with this convection as well. This
activity will continue to end from west to east through late 
morning. Some MVFR cigs are expected for a short while behind the 
main band of showers. Main concern through the day will be gusty 
south/southwest winds of 25-30kts, possibly higher. Some decrease 
in speed expected this evening/overnight, but still remaining 
quite gusty. Mid cloud deck creeps back in this evening, with 
guidance suggesting lowering to low VFR or high end MVFR towards 
end of period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

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