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FXUS63 KPAH 261142 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to minor model disagreement 
with two systems affecting the area.

At the time of this writing, a surface/upper low combo was located 
just to the north and west of our CWA and is forecast to move 
northeast today toward the Great Lakes region. A N-S cold front from 
the low was bisecting our CWA. Scattered showers were noted on radar 
generally along and east of the front.

In the wake of the frontal passage this morning, precipitation 
chances will slowly diminish from the southwest throughout the day. 
The boundary is forecast to become W-E and quasi-stationary along 
and/or near our southern CWA border by late this afternoon. 

CWA-wide dry conditions will not last for long however. 
Precipitation chances will begin to overspread the region late 
tonight from the west as the quasi-stationary frontal boundary lifts 
back to the north as a warm front in response to a system emerging 
from the southern plains moves toward the region. Precipitation 
chances max out Monday into Monday evening as the system crosses the 
region. The back edge of the precipitation associated with this 
system should be exiting our CWA late Monday night.

Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft 
should keep the region dry through the rest of the period.

Temperatures will generally be 8 to 12 degrees above normal through 
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The ECMWF takes our next low pressure system across northern 
portions of the PAH forecast area Thursday night, while the GFS 
takes it farther south and the Canadian moves it well north of our 
region.  A few showers may sneak into our far west counties 
Wednesday morning, but models all spread significant precipitation 
across the PAH forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday. 
Went with likely to categorical pops Thursday into Thursday night 
across the entire area.  With current low confidence in the track of 
the low, just how much thunder we will see is in question, but for 
now went with slight chances mainly during the day Thursday. 
Temperatures will be above normal through the end of the work week, 
especially overnight lows. 

Precipitation chances will taper off from west to east Friday into 
Friday night as the low moves well east of our area.  Models show 
surface high pressure building southward as an upper level ridge 
moves over the middle Mississippi River valley. This will give us 
dry and near seasonal conditions for Saturday. 


Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

With the passage of a frontal boundary today expect VFR/MVFR 
cigs/vsbys for the first 4-6 hours, then VFR. SHRA possible at 
KEVV/KOWB for the first 2-3 hours. Southerly winds generally AOB 5
knots will become gusty after 15Z, then diminish to AOB 5 knots 
around sunset.



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