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fxus63 kpah 272045 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
245 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 245 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A warm front will lift NE into the area overnight with a mid level
impulse moving across the region. The result will be a slowly
increasing chance of convection later this evening, best chance
after midnight. The warm front will race NE Tuesday with mid trop
negative vorticity advection developing across the area Tuesday morning, early afternoon.
Expect a lull/reduction in convective activity as a result.

Tuesday evening and overnight, weak mid level perturbations should
be enough to work with a high shear, unstable environment to
generate strong to severe convection. The Storm Prediction Center day 2 outlook
handles the details well, so we refer you to their product.
Timing best chances will be very difficult that far out and ahead
of a cold front to our west. But, we've basically been keying in
on very late day and into the evening for the initial chance, in
some form or fashion. Will keep an eye on the MO Ozarks, south
into Arkansas and east into our region. Generally followed the
GFS/ec solutions, with some NAM weight, for general overall
coverage. Chances will linger into Wednesday morning, as a cold
front moves across the area. We dry out in the afternoon, with a
dry colder Wednesday night forecast.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 245 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

In cyclonic flow aloft, a minor shortwave and its surface reflection
may be enough to kick off a little measurable pcpn over part of
southwestern in early on Fri.

Otherwise, in the extended forecast period, dry high pressure is
forecast to dominate the weather picture into at least the first
half of the weekend for much of the pah forecast area, with
gradually moderating temps. Some model solutions suggest a small
possibility of showers over parts of southeastern MO or southern Illinois
on Sat, but the flow should become more zonal by sun, with
increasing low level return flow. Therefore, probabilities of
showers will remain small but with somewhat greater possible
coverage on sun.

By Mon, the Med range models basically agree that a fairly
substantial mid level shortwave will approach our region, though the
details as to placement and timing of the sfc low/front and the
shortwave itself are more uncertain at this time. Instability
parameters appear conducive for tstms Mon as surface dewpoints rise
into the 50s and temps rise at least into the 60s. Surface fropa
could occur as early as late Mon afternoon.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1120 am CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Low level clouds 2-5k/ft will persist through the afternoon.
Mainly VFR cigs, though pockets of MVFR anticipated. Tonight we do
expect convection to be around. Confidence is too low timing wise
to include in the tafs. However MVFR/IFR cig and vsby conditions
certainly a possibility with overnight and early Tuesday morning
convection that may be around the area. An inclusion of some kind
is anticipated with future forecasts. Winds will generally be south-southeast
up to 10 kts.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.

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