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fxus63 kpah 230521 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1121 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Update...
issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Updated aviation forecast discussion for 06z tafs.

&&

Discussion
issued at 100 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Ridge west/trof east pattern will be flattening to a more zonal
westerly pattern as we finish out this Thanksgiving Holiday week.
At the same time, surface high pressure dominates throughout the
Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, while shifting its center
eastward, to the mid Atlantic coastal region, by Friday.

Current dew points across the region/nearby extend from the mid
teens just upstream to the lower-mid 20s just downstream. The
center of the high pressure ridge moves overtop tonight, and we
should see good/strong radiational cooling for the bulk of the
night, even if some high cloudiness increases toward sunrise, as
a weak wave drops across the Great Lakes. As a result, will be
lowering lows a good Cat or two below guidance.

With the high/ridge shifted east, should start to see return flow
southerlies and building heights finishing out the week. This will
translate to warming temps to/above seasonal norms, with maybe a
60 or two possible for black Friday highs. A more robust system
does pass the Great Lakes Friday PM/evening, but moisture stays
north with primary impacts. We did bump winds/gusts up a little in
the prefrontal environ for Friday PM/evening, per collab... closer
to consraw.

The net effect from that Fri night fropa for US this Holiday
weekend will be a shifting wind orientation that leads US back to
near climo norms for highs/lows that should run mainly 50s/30s,
though a little cooler northeast (sunday) and warmer southwest
(saturday) is possible.

Looking into next work week, we'll start to moderate again as the
western U.S. Ridge builds eastward. Heighs rebound and temps rise
correspondingly again, with some 60s showing up again by Tuesday.
That looks like it could be a precursor to the next chance of
rain that enters the forecast, just beyond the Puryear of this
package, as we approach the mid week period.
&&

Aviation...
issued at 1121 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

High level moisture will continue overnight with cloud heights
gradually lowering to more mid level. Skies should become skc by
sunset Thursday. Winds will be mainly calm tonight and then pick
up out of the southwest by Thursday mid morning...tapering back
off by around sunset.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.

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